John Curtice: what to expect in 2026

James Heale sits down with Sir John Curtice, the doyen of British polling, to take stock of an extraordinary year in UK politics and to look ahead to what 2026 might hold. Curtice explains why the rise of Reform UK during the spring local elections marked a historic turning point – establishing the longest period in polling history where a party outside the traditional Conservative–Labour duopoly has led nationwide and assesses Labour’s continued slide, the unprecedented collapse in support for both major parties, and the growing influence of the Greens under new leadership.

John also explores why Britain has entered a new era of multiparty politics, how cultural divides now rival economic ones, and why neither Labour nor the Conservatives can rely on their old electoral coalitions. He breaks down the challenges facing each party in Scotland, Wales and England ahead of next year’s crucial local and devolved elections, and considers how fragmentation, voter disillusionment and shifting identities could reshape the political landscape. Will 2026 see the definitive end of the two-party consensus?

Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

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