Key markets soften ahead of Trump taking office while rand weakens on various factors

Uncertainty about how aggressive incoming US president Donald Trump will be in implementing policy has hung over global markets in recent weeks. Continued US economic strength, as reflected in labour market and other data, is also creating nervousness about underlying inflationary pressures and future interest rate cuts. This is negative for bonds and equity valuations in the short term.

The rand has weakened appreciably to over R19/$ in recent weeks. It partly reflects dollar strength but also other factors, including post-year-end restocking of imported items, foreign selling of South African bonds and equities, and lacklustre economic growth. A more compelling level of economic growth is needed to attract foreign investment and cause the rand to strengthen.

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