This is part 2 of our series on Mental Models. In it, we’re bringing you the most useful and applicable models we’ve encountered in everything we’ve read, heard or seen over the years! In part 2 we unpack models from Bayesian reasoning, calibration, and expected value. We also cover fat-tailed distributions, counterfactual reasoning, inversion, and red-teaming. Throughout, we build up each model with examples and motivations, and often found ourselves making previously unseen (by us) links to other models which gave us several new insights. We hope this conversation will do the same for you!
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Shownotes:
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Farnam Street Blog - https://fs.blog
Calibration training app by 80 000 Hours - https://80000hours.org/calibration-training/
Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23995360-superforecasting
0 And 1 Are Not Probabilities - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QGkYCwyC7wTDyt3yT/0-and-1-are-not-probabilities
Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35957157-thinking-in-bets
The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/242472.The_Black_Swan
CGP Grey on 7 Ways To Maximise Misery - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LO1mTELoj6o
Claude Shannon on Creative Thinking - https://jamesclear.com/great-speeches/creative-thinking-by-claude-shannon
The Bottom Line - https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/34XxbRFe54FycoCDw/the-bottom-line
031 | Kat Woods — Effective Altruism, Infohazards, and Brain Hacks
030 | Predictive Processing 3: Neurobiology, Prediction, and Computational Psychiatry
029 | Predictive Processing 2: Where The Action Is
028 | Predictive Processing 1: The World You Thought You Knew
027 | 7 Practices to Survive the 2020 Apocalypse
026 | Drink and be Rational
025 | Self-Supervised Machine Learning: Introduction, Intuitions, and Use-Cases
024 | Replacing Guilt
023 | Are Brains Just Neural Nets?
022 | 6 Books You Need to Read in 2020… and 1 You Probably Shouldn’t
021 | The Top 19 Ideas from 2019
020 | Mental Models 3: Fantastic Biases and Where To Find Them
018 | Mental Models 1: How To Have Better Ideas and Improve Your Thinking
017 | Bronwyn Williams: Universal Basic Income & Individual Sovereignty
016 | Free Will, Compassion, and Reinforcement Learning
015 | You have no Choice in the Matter
014 | The Art of Looking - Part 1 of ??
013 | How To Learn Anything!
012 | How Deep Learning Does Magic
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