The piranha problem (too many large, independent effect sizes influence the same outcome) has received some attention on Andrew Gelman’s blog. But now it’s a paper! Chris Tosh (Memorial Sloan Kettering) talks about multiple views of the piranha problem and detecting the implausible scientific claims that are published. The butterfly effect makes an appearance.
If you enjoyed the science-vs-pseudoscience topics, you’ll enjoy this one.
0:00 - Coming up in the episode
2:35 - What is the Piranha Problem?
19:54 - Confusing effect sizes
23:11 - The "words & walking speed" study
26:22 - Declaration of independent variables
30:58 - Piranha theorems for correlations
37:07 - Piranha theorems for linear regression
40:37 - Piranha Theorems for mutual information
44:13 - Bounds on the independence of the covariates
46:12 - Applying the piranha theorem to real data
50:12 - Applying the piranha theorem across studies
54:05 - A Bayesian detour
1:00:12 - The butterfly effect & chaos
1:04:26 - Applying the piranha theorem to cancer research
Keith O’Rourke | The Logic of Statistics
Jack Fitzsimons | Evil Models: Hiding Malware in Neural Networks
Scott Cunningham | Causal Inference (The Mixtape)
Eric Daza | Important Ideas in Causal Inference
Wenting Cheng & Weidong Zhang | Advances in Biotech/Biopharma
Ruda Zhang | Gaussian Process Subspace Regression
Ruda Zhang | Math-Science Duality
Simon Mak | Integrating Science into Stats Models
Martin Goodson | Practical Data Science & The UK’s AI Roadmap
Jack Fitzsimons | Data Security, Privacy, & Artificial Intelligence
Chris Holmes | AI, Digital Health, & The Alan Turing Institute
Philosophy of Data Science | Deborah Mayo | Revolutions, Reforms, and Severe Testing in Statistical Thinking
Charlotte Deane | Bioinformatics, Deepmind’s AlphaFold 2, and Llamas
Eric Schwitzgebel | Consciousness, Zombies, & First Person Data | Philosophy of Data Science
Starting a Statistics Consultancy | Janet Wittes
Philosophy of Data Science | Jingyi Jessica Li | Advancing Statistical Genomics
Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel | Advancing Open Access Data Science Education
Jingyi Jessica Li | Statistical Hypothesis Testing vs Machine Learning Binary Classification
Gualtiero Piccinini | What Are First-Person Data? | Philosophy of Data Science
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