The 10-Minute Take

U.S. inflation’s stubborn ceiling: Why the Fed’s 2% target remains elusive

One month into 2026, U.S. inflation continues to run above 2% for a fifth consecutive year—and the reason goes beyond a single cause. Some recent data—including easing in core services and vehicle prices—might suggest relief is near, but a closer look reveals these improvements are unlikely to persist as a trend.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore what's driving inflation and how to cut through the noise. They explore:How a tight labor market, robust consumer demand, tariffs flowing through supply chains, and a lagging housing inflation measure are all keeping inflation elevated.What are the critical differences between the Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures and why the Fed's preferred measure often tells a different story than headline CPI readings.Key data challenges and what to monitor: The Producer Price Index for tariff signals, business surveys for pricing intent, and wage dynamics for inflation's floor.

Breaking the trade trap: Can Canada diversify fast enough?

Canada's extreme trade concentration—with 75% of energy exports and 77% of manufacturing exports going to the U.S. in 2024—has left the country vulnerable to protectionist trade policies.While 2025 data shows encouraging early signs of diversification, most Canadian exporters still lack the infrastructure and trade channels needed to pivot away from U.S. markets effectively.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone are joined by colleague Salim Zanzana for conversation on:Canada’s concentrated trade reality and how it’s evolved in the past year. What early diversification efforts reveal about Canadian exporters adapting. Recent developments between Canada and China and their economic impact.

Season 4 premiere: What 2026 holds for North America

We're back for season four! In this season premiere, join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they cut through the noise and reveal themes that matter for the Canadian and U.S. economies in 2026.Despite a turbulent 2025, Canada's economy is starting from a surprisingly stronger position than many realize. Per-capita GDP improved for the first time in three years. The real question is: Can this improvement be sustained as international headwinds continue to grow. South of the border, our outlook for the U.S. remains "stagflation lite"—sticky services inflation around 3% paired with growth below 2%. It's not just about tariffs. Uneven consumer spending driven by wealthy households and retirees is keeping inflation pressures alive.

Three common economic trends in Canada and the U.S. in 2025

Trade disruptions in 2025 took a toll on Canada-U.S. relations after decades of coordination and integration. Still, the two economies are more similar than many may appreciate. In this season finale of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone round up three common themes shaping both economies this year. They include:• Slowing population growth, and how it’s impacted a key labour market benchmark—breakeven employment rates.• Resilient consumer spending holding up despite much trade uncertainty and deteriorating job market conditions.• Big government deficits—an ongoing theme in the U.S. post-pandemic, but also emerging in Canada as well.

What end of U.S. government shutdown means for data and Fed

The U.S. government shutdown ended after 43 days—the longest in history—and, economists now have more clarity about the release of government data.But, clarity on timing doesn't mean clarity on the state of the U.S. economy. Without key October data, the U.S. Federal Reserve faces significant fog heading into the critical December interest rate decision.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss:When (and if) key indicators like the October jobs and inflation data will be released, and what gaps we're facing.What September data revealed about the economy heading into the shutdownHow the shutdown will weigh on GDP growth in Q4 2025.Why the Fed's December meeting is consequential, and whether a pause may be the most prudent move.