Decoding the Gurus

Decoding Academia 34: When Prophecy Fails Debunked? (Patreon Series)

Ever heard of cognitive dissonance? That thing a psychology lecturer might have explained to you once upon a time, likely using the same UFO cult example everyone else uses. Well, a new paper by Thomas Kelly suggests that the UFO cult example might have been ever so slightly oversold.Kelly's archival work suggests that the researchers didn't just observe the cult as reported. Instead, they infiltrated it, faked supernatural experiences, assumed quasi-leadership roles, and then wrote up the results as if the group had spontaneously doubled down on their failed prophecy, which they had not. Because the leader recanted, and the group fell apart shortly after the failed prophecy. Minor details.Matt and Chris discuss this paper, a 2024 multilab replication, and some other papers by Kelly, considering the ever-reliable tendency of researchers to find exactly what they are looking for.It's cognitive dissonance all the way down, folks.The full episode is available to Patreon subscribers (1 hour, 10 minutes).Join us at: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingTheGurusDecoding Academia 34: When Prophecy Fails Debunked?00:00 Introduction02:04 Cognitive Dissonance Theory06:41 Classic lab evidence: effort justification & the ‘severe initiation’ study08:33 When Prophecy Fails: The Original Account10:54 The debunking: archival evidence, misconduct claims, and ethical red flags20:22 Replication reality check: multi-lab results and ‘strong vs weak’ dissonance31:40 Beyond one case: survivorship bias, failed prophecies, and early Christianity parallels35:51 Christianity as Historical Anomaly or Cognitive Dissonance Exemplar?41:48 Thomas Kelly: Interesting biosafety takes and a possible Christian lens45:43 The importance of seeking for disconfirming evidence50:23 Conspiracy-theory dynamics & narrative elaboration56:30 Classical Psychological Theories and Personal Motivations01:03:07 Steps that can be taken to reduce biases01:05:01 Stay tentative, check evidence, and don’t pick sides too fast01:06:30 A lesson from Scott Alexander!SourcesAcademic Papers and BooksFestinger, L. (1957). A theory of cognitive dissonance. Stanford University Press.Festinger, L., Riecken, H. W., & Schachter, S. (1956). When prophecy fails. University of Minnesota Press.Festinger, L., & Carlsmith, J. M. (1959). Cognitive consequences of forced compliance. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 58(2), 203–210. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0041593 (The original induced-compliance/$1/$20 study)Kelly, T. (2026). Debunking "When Prophecy Fails." Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences, 62(1), e70043. https://doi.org/10.1002/jhbs.70043Kelly, T. (2025). Failed prophecies are fatal. International Journal for the Study of New Religions, 14(1), 48–71. https://doi.org/10.1558/ijsnr.33085Aronson, E., & Mills, J. (1959). The effect of severity of initiation on liking for a group. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 59(2), 177–181. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0047195Vaidis, D. C., Sleegers, W. W. A., van Leeuwen, F., DeMarree, K. G., Sætrevik, B., Ross, R. M., ... & Priolo, D. (2024). A multilab replication of the induced-compliance paradigm of cognitive dissonance. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 7(1), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1177/25152459231213375Croyle, R. T., & Cooper, J. (1983). Dissonance arousal: Physiological evidence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45(4), 782–791. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.45.4.782 (The study that the Vaidis et al. 2024 multilab replication was based on)Podcasts ReferencedThe Studies Show [formerly Science Fictions] podcast. Episode 90: Cognitive dissonance.QAA Podcast. Episode 350: “When ‘When Prophecy Fails’ Fails.” Interview with Thomas Kelly.Conspirituality podcast. Episode 284: “When Prophecy-Science Fails” (w/ Thomas Kelly), 20 Nov 2025.Blog Posts & Other SourcesAlexander, S. (2023, February 14). Contra Kavanagh on fideism. Astral Codex Ten. (Contains the PMDD / Slate vs. Vox example discussed near the end of the episode)Kavanagh, C. (2023). Am I a fideist? Medium. (Chris’s response to Scott Alexander)Alexander, S. (2023, February 15). Trying again on fideism. Astral Codex Ten.Kelly, T. Open Science Framework repository containing scanned archival materials from the Festinger papers (Bentley Historical Library, University of Michigan).Kelly, T. (2025, March 18). Yet another White House says it won't fund engineered deadly viruses. Tablet Magazine.Kelly, T. Christians for Impact. Politics and policy.

Teal Swan: All Hail Source

Cult Season rumbles on as Chris and Matt expand their minds in an attempt to absorb the cosmic insights of spiritual influencer and alleged cult leader Teal Swan (born Mary Teal Bosworth, 1984). Our intrepid hosts explore her recent appearance on the Just Tap In podcast with Emilio “starchild” Ortiz — a beanie-wearing vessel of pure credulity, lobbing softball metaphysical questions gently into the astral winds.The topic covered is ostensibly “Major 2026 Predictions” but this is really just an entry point for discussion of the ancient origins of AI, multiversal astral contract negotiations, and, of course, the urgent need to discuss masculinity before we spiritually implode.You will learn insights, such as: how AI will eliminate ageing, guide us to SOURCE, amplify our shadow, and corrupt and deceive us ... all at once. Aliens and other cosmic beings are deeply concerned with and also not really all that bothered with humanity. Also, pop stars are apparently set to receive divine instructions to stabilise the collective psyche in 2026. And how we are all trapped in a planetary pressure cooker that will run at least until 2030. Teal is trying not to scare us, but it doesn’t look great (though it might also be great and lead to utopia).Expect astral board meetings, sensemaking redefinitions of “power” and “love”, warnings about the painful sacrifices required to join Teal’s “conscious community”, and some distinctly uncomfortable talk about opening gates and reframing mother–son dynamics. As ever, Matt and Chris attempt to decode the elevated vagueness, semantic gliding, and cosmic scaling of very earthly anxieties.All hail SOURCE!Decoding ContentJust Tap In Podcast #260: "Teal Swan – Why 2026 Is a Psychological & Relational Tipping Point for Humanity"LinksThe Gateway (Gizmodo Podcast, 2018) - Six-part investigative series by Jennings BrownThe Deep End (Freeform/Hulu, 2022) - Four-part docuseries by Jon KasbeMormon Stories #1607: Growing Up with Teal Swan - Diana Hansen Ribera - Interview with Teal's childhood best friendMormon Stories #1328-1331: Leaving Mormonism to Join Teal Swan's Cult - Jared DobsonBBC- Teal Swan: The woman encouraging her followers to visualise deathScam Goddess: The Culty Con of Teal Swan w/ Sarah MarshallConspirituality 111: Who's Afraid of Teal Swan (pt 2) (w/Jennings Brown)Prosody's Gurudex Website

Decoding Academia 34: Empathetic AIs? (Patreon Series)

In this Decoding Academia episode, we take a look at a 2025 paper by Daria Ovsyannikova, Victoria Olden, and Mickey Inzlicht, asking a question that might make some people uncomfortable/angry, specifically, are AI-generated responses perceived as more empathetic than those written by actual humans?We walk through the design in detail (including why this is a genuinely severe test), hand out deserved open-science brownie points, and discuss why AI seems to excel particularly when responding to negative or distress-laden prompts. Along the way, Chris reflects on his unsettlingly intense relationship with Google’s semi-sentient customer-service agent “Bubbles,” and we ask whether infinite patience, maximal effort, and zero social awkwardness might be doing most of the work here.This is not a paper about replacing therapists, outsourcing friendship, or mass-producing compassion at scale. It is a careful demonstration that fluent, effortful, emotionally calibrated text is often enough to convince people they are being understood, which might explain some of the appeal of the Gurus.SourceOvsyannikova, D., de Mello, V. O., & Inzlicht, M. (2025). Third-party evaluators perceive AI as more compassionate than expert humans. Communications Psychology, 3(1), 4.Decoding Academia 34: Empathetic AIs?01:40 Introducing the Paper10:29 Study Methodology14:21 Chris's meaningful relationship with YouTube AI agent Bubbles16:23 Open Science Brownie Points17:50 Empathetic Prompt Engineering: Humans and AIs21:17 Study 1 and 231:35 Study 3 and 437:00 Study Conclusions42:27 Severe Hypothesis Testing45:11 Seeking out Disconfirming Evidence47:06 Why do AIs do better on negative prompts?54:48 Final Thoughts

The Rise of the Science Populists with Sam Gregson and Tim Henke

In this interview episode, we are joined by physicists Sam Gregson (Bad Boy of Science YouTube channel) and Tim Henke to examine the rise of science populism: a style of science communication that borrows the tactics of political populism, including grievance narratives, institutional distrust, and conspiratorial framing, while presenting its advocates as lone truth-tellers battling a corrupt academic elite.We discuss how DTG favourites like Sabine Hossenfelder and Eric Weinstein, as well as fresh new faces Brian Keating and Avi Loeb, deploy selective truths about physics to fuel self-aggrandising, anti-expert narratives.Along the way, we also cover stuff like why “physics hasn’t progressed in 50 years”, cranks are useful props for populist arguments, and the strange obsession with Nobel Prizes.If you are interested in guru dynamics, science communication, and physics crankery, this might be an episode for you.LinksBad Boy of Science (Sam Gregson)Tim's Profile WebsiteBad Boy of Science – The Rise of Physics PopulisersTheories of Everything (Kurt Jaimungal)Losing the Nobel Prize – Brian KeatingInto the Impossible (Brian Keating)Sabine Hossenfelder’s YouTube ChannelThe Portal (Eric Weinstein)The Galileo Project (Avi Loeb)Sean Carroll – Mindscape / Preposterous UniverseNot Even Wrong (Peter Woit)

Supplementary Material 44: Peasant Archmages, Moral Panics, and LOTR Parenting Tips

We descend once more into the Gurusphere, encountering secret peasant archmages, decline narratives, Epstein emails, and endless moral panics.The full episode is available to Patreon subscribers (1 hour, 37 minutes).Join us at: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingTheGurus00:00 SM 44 PF00:23 Introduction01:30 Konstantin Kisin: Not Left Or Right, Just Right05:20 Boghossian is shocked by pessimistic French people08:50 Konstantin and Warren Smith as relics of the anti-SJW era12:45 A PSA! Hyper Capitalism Tier Update!18:36 Matt's AV Setup20:01 Recommendation: Successville (British version)21:40 My peasant farmer dad is secretly an Archmage!28:14 Scott Galloway talks with Gwyneth Paltrow40:18 American Capitalist Culture and the Gurus48:54 Bryan Johnson vs AG151:45 Bryan Johnson & Epstein Schmoozing58:09 Bari Weiss's Peter Attia Woes59:14 Epstein and QAnon Conspiracies01:03:23 Overinterpreting Epstein emails01:09:04 Shermer promotes Dave Rubin to hawk his book on Truth01:10:37 Conspiracy Theory prevalence on left and riht01:17:44 Jonathan Haidt and his anti-social media crusade01:23:15 Plato on the Corruption of the Youth01:24:30 The Eternal Appeal of Decline Narratives01:26:22 They won't let you enjoy things anymore...01:30:24 Matt's laissez-faire parenting tips01:31:45 Life lessons from Lord of the Rings01:34:17 The Witch King of Angmar defeated by a Woke White WomenSourcesKonstantin Kisin on not being left or rightBoghossian and Kisin bemoan civilisational decline narrativesThe Guardian on Bari Weiss’s new CBS “Podcastistan” hiresNiall Ferguson on how Trump “won Davos”The Guardian: Elon Musk had more extensive ties to Epstein than previously knownMy Farmer Dad Is Secretly an Archmage – viral short-form fantasy dramaBehind the Scenes of My Farmer Dad Is Secretly an ArchmageOriginal Chinese version of My Farmer Dad Is Secretly an Archmage (Destiny’s Keeper)Michael Shermer promoting Dave RubinMichael Shermer previously promoted Stefan MolyneuxBryan Johnson criticising AG1 (sort of)Miami Herald’s early investigative coverage of Jeffrey EpsteinEarly New York Magazine profile of Jeffrey Epstein (2002)Vanity Fair on Jeffrey Epstein and elite power networks (2003)New York Magazine on Epstein before the non-prosecution deal (2007)Michael Shermer on conspiracies and truth-seeking on The Rubin ReportHong (2026) on the cognitive foundations of decline narrativesNew York Times on Jonathan Haidt and new evidence on social mediaOliver Curry pushes back on Haidt’s claimsChris Ferguson responds critically to Haidt’s arguments