Expected Value Makes Uncertainty Manageable
Ever face a late-stage design decision where your gut says “maybe,” finance says “no,” and the schedule says “hurry”? We unpack a simple way to make those calls with more clarity: using expected value to connect confidence, upside, and downside into one sober view of net benefit. No jargon, no spreadsheets required—just a clear framework that helps you see when a $50,000 test buys real certainty, and when the right move is to ship.Still, numbers don’t get the final say. The goal isn’t to pick the biggest EV; it’s to choose the most balanced, actionable, project-aligned option.If this approach helps you navigate the gray areas between risk and reward, follow the show, share it with a teammate, and leave a quick review so others can find it. Got a decision you’re wrestling with? Send it our way—we’ll feature it in a future breakdown.This blogpost: https://deeneyenterprises.com/qdd/podcast/expected-value-makes-uncertainty-manageable/Facing a really complicated and nuanced decision? Try this Method to Help with Complex Decisions (DMRCS)Ready to apply this to your project?→ Schedule a free discovery call: Dianna's calendarWant insights like this?→ Subscribe to my newsletter: qualityduringdesign.substack.comLearn the full framework:→ Get the Book: Pierce the Design Fog ABOUT DIANNADianna Deeney is a quality advocate for product development with over 25 years of experience in manufacturing. She is president of Deeney Enterprises, LLC, which helps organizations and people improve engineering design.
Define Kill Criteria to Avoid Zombie Projects
When pursuing aggressive benchmarks, engineers must employ portfolio thinking, running multiple design projects simultaneously. But choosing winners requires a decisive way to eliminate projects that are not feasible to continue innovating, often referred to as a "project killer". In this episode, we analyze Tesla's battery development as a case study. We delve into their use of five clear-cut constraint categories that define failure conditions upfront: the Economic filter, Performance filter, Scalability filter, Resource filter, and System filter. We discuss the challenges engineers face in letting go of projects due to the sunk cost fallacy, where prior investments irrationally influence future choices, leading to the creation of "zombie projects". Learn why defining explicit kill criteria before development begins is a vital, often overlooked exercise that saves resources and ensures rational decision-making.Blog for this episode: https://deeneyenterprises.com/qdd/podcast/define-kill-criteria-to-avoid-zombie-projects/Episode with Dianna's review of Annie Duke's "Quit": Exploring Product Development and AI Through Literature: Insights from 'Loonshots', 'AI 2041', 'Quit', and "How Big Things Get Done' (QDD Book Cast) - Deeney EnterprisesReady to apply this to your project?→ Schedule a free discovery call: Dianna's calendarWant insights like this?→ Subscribe to my newsletter: qualityduringdesign.substack.comLearn the full framework:→ Get the Book: Pierce the Design Fog ABOUT DIANNADianna Deeney is a quality advocate for product development with over 25 years of experience in manufacturing. She is president of Deeney Enterprises, LLC, which helps organizations and people improve engineering design.
Confidence is a Dial: Turn It with Evidence, Not Guesswork
We turn late-stage design surprises into a strategic plan by assigning explicit confidence levels, stacking evidence, and using the three-dial model of time, cost, and confidence boost. We show how to work backward from a system test to cheaper steps that drive faster, clearer decisions.• applying the three dials of time, cost, confidence• sequencing with the work-backwards strategy• avoiding overtesting, undertesting, wrong testing• turning confidence into a team communication tool• practical next steps to build the confidence muscleSubscribe to the Substack for monthly guides, templates, and Q&A where I help you apply these to your specific projects.Visit qualityduringdesign.substack.com, or you can get the transcript of this episode and many other podcast episodes at deeneyenterprises.comReady to apply this to your project?→ Schedule a free discovery call: Dianna's calendarWant insights like this?→ Subscribe to my newsletter: qualityduringdesign.substack.comLearn the full framework:→ Get the Book: Pierce the Design Fog ABOUT DIANNADianna Deeney is a quality advocate for product development with over 25 years of experience in manufacturing. She is president of Deeney Enterprises, LLC, which helps organizations and people improve engineering design.
Raise Your Confidence by Strategically Stacking Evidence
Late-stage design just hit a snag—now comes the moment that separates guesswork from great engineering. We walk through a clear, repeatable method to investigate unexpected failures and make high-impact decisions with confidence. Instead of hunting for a perfect test, we set a confidence target and stack multiple forms of imperfect evidence until we close the gap.If you’re navigating late-stage product development and want a calm, methodical way to move from 40% to 90% confidence, this framework will help you choose the next best step, allocate limited time and budget, and know when to stop. Join the Substack for monthly guides, templates, and QA where I help you apply these to your specific projects. Visit qualityduringdesign.substack.com. Show notesReady to apply this to your project?→ Schedule a free discovery call: Dianna's calendarWant insights like this?→ Subscribe to my newsletter: qualityduringdesign.substack.comLearn the full framework:→ Get the Book: Pierce the Design Fog ABOUT DIANNADianna Deeney is a quality advocate for product development with over 25 years of experience in manufacturing. She is president of Deeney Enterprises, LLC, which helps organizations and people improve engineering design.
Stop Risk Theater, Start Real Decisions
We break down why risk analyses often become checkbox theater and replace them with a simple, practical impact vs likelihood matrix that guides action. From quick wins to high-stakes unknowns, we show how to calibrate effort, buy the right learning, and move with confidence.Join the Substack for monthly guides, templates, and QA where I help you apply these to your specific projects. Ready to apply this to your project?→ Schedule a free discovery call: Dianna's calendarWant insights like this?→ Subscribe to my newsletter: qualityduringdesign.substack.comLearn the full framework:→ Get the Book: Pierce the Design Fog ABOUT DIANNADianna Deeney is a quality advocate for product development with over 25 years of experience in manufacturing. She is president of Deeney Enterprises, LLC, which helps organizations and people improve engineering design.