Optimist Economy

Simple Immigration Economics: Bigger is Better

(Originally aired 6/24/2025) One in five workers in the United States was born in another country. Without them, the country’s prime-age workforce would be shrinking, and thus so would our economy. So the calumny (Terms & Conditions) directed at immigrants is at odds with the basic fact that the U.S. needs them. What about depressing wages? Research finds such a mixed bag of results that the overall effect is about zero. Indeed, if the goal is to save “American jobs” or help American workers, there are a lot more effective ways to spend $185 billion than on a massive crackdown on immigration rules. Chapters:00:02:34  Announcements00:05:55  Retcon00:10:43  Terms & Conditions 00:12:21  Big Pilcrow00:43:07  Executive Orders00:49:12  Spiritual Sponsors Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to optimist.economy@gmail.com

America at 250: Case for the Defense

It’s the United States’ semiquincentennial … and one of us is not feeling it. The other is literally carrying a flag in her bag — and that’s just her road flag. Kathryn Anne Edwards makes her case for optimism right now: The U.S. is undergoing one of the most dramatic demographic and cultural shifts of any industrialized nation. Americans agree that Congress is broken. And the people's agenda on wages, childcare, money in politics, and Social Security polls above 80%. Maybe this isn’t a backslide. It's just what clearing the air looks like. Chapters:00:01:21 Announcements00:04:10 Retcon: More on the national anthem00:06:36 Terms & Conditions: Origin of "the melting pot"00:08:01 Big Pilcrow: Make Robin Optimistic about America00:48:17 Executive Orders: End gerrymandering; mandatory hearings on supermajority issues00:50:03 Spiritual Sponsors: Knicks celebrations; bourbon in Louisville Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Facebook somewhere (search for it), on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to optimist.economy@gmail.com

Optimist Q&A: The AI Bubble, the Rapture, and Free Lunch

We can’t give financial advice. Or feedback on your 20-page tax proposal. But economist Kathryn Edwards did take a run at nearly 20 listener questions in under 60 minutes. Among them: Why care about birth rates if robots are taking all the jobs? What happens if the AI bubble bursts? Will the dollar collapse? Can the bond market sway the White House? Plus: Why the minimum wage matters even if it doesn’t alleviate most poverty and how to argue for universal free school lunch. Chapters:1:43 — AI & birth rates2:57 — AI & birth rates (cont.)5:43 — AI bubble burst8:11 — The experience of inflation11:20 — Minimum wage & poverty13:55 — Job loss after 5017:30 — Productivity squeeze21:00 — CEO pay ratio cap21:49 — Could the dollar collapse?26:59 — Bonds & the Fed28:35 — Debt ceiling fix31:12 — Trump Accounts vs 401k34:42 — Tax dollar waste myth36:46 — Universal school meals40:11 — Part-time for new parents42:28 — Fighting monopolies44:14 — Policy ideas for Texas47:34 — Mamdani goes federal?50:43 — Top 1% wealth myth Dis-save a bit to help Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Unbeeped episodes at the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. Short videos on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. We are on Facebook. Search for us.  Get in on the Optimist chat on Substack. Get on the wait list for our next batch of hats: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Get in touch: optimist.economy@gmail.com

Inflation Risk is the Wrong Recession Lesson

This might be the most dangerous economic assertion circulating today: the high inflation from 2021-2023 was caused by government stimulus. The talking point on the right goes: the third COVID-era stimulus checks landed in March 2021, prices took off, case closed. Of course reality is more nuanced. And most serious estimates pin only a point or two of the inflation peak on the bill; the rest was supply chain chaos, a global chip shortage, and the Ukraine war. The pandemic caused the worst job loss on record — and the response produced the fastest labor-market recovery we've ever had, because policymakers went big. The danger is that they remember the inflation and forget the recovery.Chapters:00:01:14 Announcements00:03:24  Retcon: Q1 GDP Revised 00:04:50 Terms & Conditions: Output Gap, NAIRU, "The Long Depression"00:11:49  Big Pilcrow: Is Recession Recovery Getting Blamed for Inflation?00:42:14  Executive Orders: Parallel parking licenses, FIFA ticketing ban00:45:52  Spiritual Sponsors: Small hardware stores, handwritten letter to OE Support Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com/donate Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Or search for us on Facebook. Chat with Optimists on Substack. Hats, tees and totes: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Reach us at: optimist.economy@gmail.com

Make the Economy Work for Freelancers, Too (#askingforafriend)

Thirty million Americans, more or less, work for themselves. They freelance, do gig work, have solo LLCs, or — as a certain economist says — participate in “ non-employee employment.” The economics of their situation is harder than it needs to be. Making self-employment more viable is good for everyone in the labor market, because when workers have options, they also have more power. Plus: Kathryn Anne Edwards testified before the House Ways and Means Committee, and a congressman implied she wasn't a real American. She has thoughts.Chapters:0:00 — Start/Announcements1:21 — Retcon: Bad banks, good overtime, and testifying before Congress (again)18:17 — Big Pilcrow: Freelancers & non-employer businesses44:42 — Executive orders: national anthem singing rules, Congressional attendance policy47:20 — Spiritual sponsors: Supportive listeners and horchada + cold brew coffee49:01 — Credits Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy.  Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders?  Send them to optimist.economy@gmail.com