Analyse Podcast

This Week in Asia: Is the AI Bubble About to Pop? with Daniel Cerventus and Michael Smith Jr

By popular demand, Michael Smith Jr., co-host of The Generalist podcast, and Daniel Cerventus Lim, semi-retired entrepreneur and community builder in Malaysia, return for another candid deep-dive into Southeast Asia and India tech landscape. Fresh off India's record-breaking IPO wave that's drawing regional companies like Pine Labs to redomicile, they dissect what this exit boom means for a Southeast Asian ecosystem still struggling with venture returns. Michael delivers his characteristically unflinching take on why "the year of [insert country]" never materializes beyond Singapore and Indonesia, while making the provocative case that most VCs fundamentally misunderstand B2B distribution strategy—specifically how hyperscaler marketplaces like AWS and Microsoft provide the GTM playbook that separates successful exits from perennial fundraising. Daniel shares emerging insights from the SME acquisition space, revealing the stark reality that traditional businesses are "seeing black" while venture-backed startups continue "seeing red." Together, they debate whether we're witnessing an AI infrastructure bubble that will pop or simply taper, examine why Southeast Asia leads globally in AI adoption despite the disconnect with venture outcomes, and question the fragility of cloud infrastructure after recent AWS and CloudFlare outages. The conversation culminates in a sobering assessment: the region has achieved a remarkable $300 billion digital economy milestone, but the path forward may require accepting longer timelines, smaller profitable exits over unicorn dreams, and modernizing traditional businesses rather than building the next ByteDance."If you don't think we're gonna get there, then you should all get outta tech because we're gonna get there. And if you're gonna get there, we barely have the horsepower to do the Google Docs that we have today, let alone the world I just described." - Michael Smith JrOn AI Assistance - “If you can get 90% of the stuff done, I just need to say yes or no. And that is like my [ideal state]." - Daniel Cerventus Episode Highlights: [00:00] Quotes of the Day by Michael, Daniel & Bernard[02:12] Record India IPOs signal redomiciling trend from Singapore[03:53] Pine Labs exit provides significant Southeast Asia returns[04:41] Indonesia's venture funding freeze despite strong exit activity[11:29] Year of whatever narrative never materializes for any country in ASEAN[15:05] AI infrastructure bubble debate: does it pop or fizzle?[18:42] OpenAI's unprecedented growth speed creates new tech pantheon[21:00] Recent AWS and CloudFlare outages highlight infrastructure fragility[24:00] AI agents remain in early stages of development[28:00] Real-world robotics models still lack adequate data foundations[34:00] AppPoint's dual NASDAQ-SGX listing demonstrates successful B2B strategy[38:00] B2B marketplace strategy provides essential distribution for startups[44:00] Reflections on eConomySEA 10th Year Report 2025[53:00] SME market offers modernization opportunities with lower risk[54:00] Southeast Asia modernization surprises many American visitors[56:00] SME acquisition market shows profitability versus startup losses[57:00] ClosingProfile: Michael Smith Jr., Tech Evangelist from Oracle & Co-Host, LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/smittysgp/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheGeneralistsPodcast Daniel Cerventus Lim, semi-retired entrepreneur, Community Builder in Malaysia and TEDxKL founder. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cerventus/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/80164351656Podcast Information: Bernard Leong hosts and produces the show. The proper credits for the intro and end music are "Energetic Sports Drive." G. Thomas Craig mixed and edited the episode in both video and audio format.

Raise Your Level of AI Ambition - Microsoft's AI Strategy for Developers with Jay Parikh

Fresh out of the studio, Jay Parikh, Executive Vice President of Core AI at Microsoft, joins us to explore how Microsoft is fundamentally transforming software development by placing AI at the center of every stage of the development lifecycle. He shares his career journey from scaling the internet at Akamai Technologies during the dot-com boom, to leading infrastructure at Facebook through the mobile revolution, and now driving Microsoft's AI-first transformation where the definition of "developer" itself is rapidly evolving. Jay explains that Microsoft's Core AI team, is moving beyond traditional tiered architecture to a new paradigm where large language models can think, reason, plan, and interact with tools—shifting developer time from typing code to specification and verification while enabling parallel project execution through specialized AI agents. He highlights how organizations like Singapore Airlines cut project timelines from 11 weeks to 5 weeks using GitHub Copilot and challenges both individuals and enterprises to raise their level of ambition: moving from being amazed by AI to being frustrated it can't do more, while building cultural experiments that unlock this exponential technology. Closing the conversation, Jay shares what great looks like for Microsoft's Core AI to enable AI transformation for every organization around the world. "There's this set of people that are using these AI-powered tools and they're like, 'Wow, that's amazing!' Stunned as to how incredible the response is from AI. Then there's another set of people that have these experiences when they work with AI—they’re frustrated with it because they're just like, 'Why can't it do this for me yet?'And they're pushing the envelope of what this LLM or what this system can do, what this tool can do. If you are in the former group, then you need to raise your level of ambition. You need to delegate harder things to it. And if you're in the second group, then you need to learn more about how these things work." - Jay Parikh Episode Highlights:[00:00] Quote of the day by Jay Parikh[01:00] Introducing Microsoft's Core AI strategy and transformation[02:34] Career philosophy: pursuing hard problems and discomfort[04:08] Core AI team's mission: empowering every developer[06:00] Reinventing the entire software development lifecycle[09:17] Parallel projects and agents transforming development workflows[12:12] AI first strategy across Microsoft's product ecosystem[15:37] GitHub platform beyond code: context and orchestration[20:33] Building AI platforms: lessons from scale experience[21:00] Two mindsets: amazement versus frustration with AI[22:15] Raising ambition and pushing AI tool boundaries[25:00] Enterprise adoption challenges: tools and cultural transformation[28:00] Learning loops: shrinking circles to accelerate growth[31:00] Alignment without tight coupling across global teams[36:56] Concrete trends: use tools, understand model development[40:27] Responsible AI and security built from start[43:30] Asia innovation: two thirds of developers here[46:19] Raising ambition to unlock human creativity collaboration[48:35] Goal: AI transformation for every global organizationProfile: Jay Parikh, Executive Vice President, Core AI, Microsoft LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jayparikh/Podcast Information: Bernard Leong hosts and produces the show. The proper credits for the intro and end music are "Energetic Sports Drive." G. Thomas Craig mixed and edited the episode in both video and audio format.

Solving Asia's Private Market Information Crisis with Raghav Kapoor

"Public markets are behaving more like private markets. Private markets want to behave more like public markets. So actually, they're just one market.What's not the same is the level of research, information, data disclosure. Correct. That's the only difference. It's this information gap that, to us, is the single biggest opportunity now.We think over the course of the next five to 10 years, there'll be more trading venues, more liquidity providers, more market makers, more investor types—all of that. And I think what Smartkarma has always done is be the information flow for part of capital markets.In fact, that sort of 74 billion number, I think, is quite conservative. I've seen other estimates that are close to 120 billion. So it depends on what you see as sort of growth and what you see beyond. But regardless, I think it’s very large numbers, and the ratio of exit to invested capital is extremely low. A 50 billion hole is a pretty big hole." - Raghav Kapoor, CEO of SmartkarmaRaghav Kapoor, CEO & co-founder of Smartkarma, joined us for a conversation on the launch of PvtIQ and the structural transformation of Asia's private markets. Drawing from his experience building Smartkarma's independent research platform, Raghav explained how client demand for pre-IPO coverage led to creating PvtIQ, an intelligence platform designed to bridge the critical information gap in Southeast Asia's private markets. We discussed the striking imbalance where $74 billion has been invested into the region's tech ecosystem but only $23 billion has been returned through exits, highlighting the urgent need for better data infrastructure and price discovery. Raghav shared unique insights on how families dominate the region's investment landscape, why private and public markets are converging into one, and his vision for PvtIQ to become the intelligence backbone supporting companies, investors, and regulators in bringing more transparency and efficiency to Asia's rapidly evolving private market ecosystem.Episode Highlights:[00:00] Quote of the Day by Raghav Kapoor[00:57]] Smartkarma launches PvtIQ for Asia's private markets[03:11]] Investors requesting coverage three years before IPO[04:08]] Supporting MAS equity market development program[05:24]] Singapore's public markets languished despite private growth[06:13]] Path from fundraising to public listing explained[08:37]] $74 billion invested, only $23 billion exits[09:45]] Companies need support to achieve IPO readiness[11:00]] Capital chasing deals shifted to improving disclosure[11:57]] Southeast Asia's extreme market fragmentation challenges[13:23]] Families dominate and influence Southeast Asian markets[14:38]] Lack of data creates serious structural challenges[19:01]] Private market investors transitioning from momentum investing[20:18]] Digital banks provide disclosure model for research[21:24]] Late stage private rounds resemble public IPOs[23:26]] Liquidity without information is just volatility[24:06]] Private and public markets converging into one[25:30]] Information gap is the single biggest opportunity[27:00]] Private market research TAM already $8 billion[28:57]] What great looks like: intelligence backbone for Asia's private markets[30:57]] ClosingProfile: Raghav Kapoor, CEO and co-founder, SmartkarmaLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ragkap/Podcast Information: Bernard Leong hosts and produces the show. The proper credits for the intro and end music are "Energetic Sports Drive." G. Thomas Craig mixed and edited the episode in both video and audio format. Recorded in Poddster Singapore

The AI Industry Is Building Modern Empires with Karen Hao

Fresh out of the studio, Karen Hao, investigative journalist and author of "Empire of AI" joined us in a conversation to unravel how companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI have become modern empires reshaping society, labor, and democracy itself. Karen traces her journey from mechanical engineering at MIT to becoming one of the tech industry's most critical voices, sharing how Silicon Valley's innovation ecosystem has distorted toward self-interest rather than the public good. She unpacks the four characteristics that make AI companies mirror colonial empires: resource extraction through data scraping, labor exploitation of annotation workers, knowledge monopolies where most AI researchers are industry-funded, and quasi-religious quests to build an "AI God." Throughout the conversation, Karen reveals OpenAI's governance dysfunction stemming from its contradictory non-profit-for-profit structure and shares the inspiring story of Chilean water activists who successfully blocked Google's data center from draining their community's freshwater resources. She explains how Sam Altman's plans for 250 gigawatts of data center capacity—equivalent to four dozen New York Cities—would be environmentally catastrophic, while demonstrating how China's export restrictions paradoxically spurred more efficient AI innovation. Last but not least, she argues that empathy-driven journalism remains irreplaceable and calls for global citizens to hold these companies accountable to the broader public interest."These empires are amassing extraordinary amounts of resources by dispossessing a majority of the world. That includes like the data that they're extracting from people by just scraping it from online or intellectual property that they're taking from artists and creators. Most AI researchers now work for the AI industry and/or are funded in part by the AI industry. Even academics that have stayed within universities are often funded by the AI industry, and the effect that that has had on knowledge production is akin to the effect we would imagine if most climate scientists were bankrolled by the fossil fuel industry. I cannot stress enough how much they genuinely believe that they are on the path to creating something akin to an AI god, and that this is going to have cataclysmic shifts on civilization." - Karen Hao, Author of Empire of AIEpisode Highlights:[00:00] Quote of the Day by Karen Hao[00:47] Introduction: Karen Hao, Author of "Empire of AI"[01:44] From MIT engineering to investigating AI journalism[02:51] Silicon Valley distorts innovation toward self-benefit[04:12] AI companies as modern empires of power[06:00] Four traits of Empire: extraction, exploitation, monopolies, ideology[09:01] Quasi-religious movements driving Silicon Valley AI development[10:04] AGI believers speak specialized fanatical vocabulary[11:16] OpenAI founding: nonprofit facade, profit ambitions[13:53] Sam Altman firing: board's failed governance attempt[17:13] Fragmentation: every billionaire building their own AI[19:06] China's export controls sparked efficient AI innovation[21:57] Silicon Valley lacks American democratic values entirely[25:06] Chilean activists successfully blocked Google's water extraction[28:51] Sam Altman's 250 gigawatts: four dozen New York cities[31:21] Scaling continues despite base model asymptote reached[32:53] Benchmarks faulty: training data unknown, results unreliable[39:11] Success: sparking conversation about AI's human costs[39:40] ClosingProfile: Karen Hao, Author of Empire of AI and Investigative Journalist LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/karendhao/Personal Site: https://karendhao.com/Podcast Information: Bernard Leong hosts and produces the show. The proper credits for the intro and end music are "Energetic Sports Drive." G. Thomas Craig mixed and edited the episode in both video and audio format.

Open Source AI: Faster Innovation Through Community Across Asia Pacific with Simon Milner

Simon Milner, Vice President of Public Policy for Asia Pacific at Meta, joins us to explore how Meta's deliberate commitment to open source AI is reshaping innovation across the world's most diverse and dynamic region. He shares his journey from the BBC to nearly 14 years at Meta, where he built policy teams from the ground up to lead Meta's Asia Pacific strategy. Simon unpacks Meta's open source philosophy behind the Llama models, explaining how openness accelerates innovation through community scrutiny, provides governments greater control over sensitive data, and enables local developers to fine-tune models for languages like Korean, Vietnamese, and Bahasa Indonesia. He highlights compelling use cases across the region in Japan and Korea. Looking ahead, Simon reveals why the future of AI is not on our phones but in wearables like AI-enabled glasses that create always-on assistants seeing what we see and hearing what we hear, enabling us to be more present in the world while Meta supercharges its family of apps serving billions globally. Last but not least he shares what great looks like for Meta in the Asia Pacific on open source AI."We believe that openness is actually a really key feature of accelerating innovation because it fosters inclusion, it builds trust, and it ensures that the benefits of AI are more evenly distributed around the world.The openness of models allows other people to, as they were, push and pull and prod at the models at a fundamental level in order to see where might the problems be. And so that kind of community, the developer community scrutiny around open source is fundamental to spotting issues and addressing them quickly.Actually, the story of AI is about yes... that is important. The investments that companies like Meta and others are making is important, but actually, it's really about local ownership and local innovation." - Simon MilnerEpisode Highlights: [00:00] Quote of the Day by Simon Milner from Meta[01:37] Simon's journey: BBC, BT, Meta's 14-year evolution[03:12] Navigating diverse regulatory landscapes across global markets[05:24] Career advice: Take risks, embrace unexpected opportunities[07:54] Open source AI democratizes access and innovation[10:21] Meta sparked open model trend, others followed[14:49] Open models enable faster innovation through community[16:21] Government control and data sovereignty with open[19:13] Governance mechanisms: transparency, red teaming, community engagement[22:49] Meta learned responsible AI through 20 years experience[25:49] Singapore, Japan, Korea developers using Lama locally[28:26] AI isn't just big companies and includes local innovation[31:15] Keeping AI open prevents fragmented national bubbles[34:01] Governments balancing open innovation with national interests[37:00] Future AI: wearables and glasses, not phones[38:19] Always-on AI assistants seeing and hearing you[41:35] Supercharging Meta apps and building new products[42:00] ClosingPodcast Information: Bernard Leong hosts and produces the show. Proper credits for the intro and end music: Energetic Sports Drive and the episode is mixed and edited in both video and audio format by G. Thomas Craig. Visit our Analyse main site: https://analyse.asia