Decoding Populism

Poland and Qatar are being dragged into conflict, while some of the West dithers and some falls apart. Is there a way back from the brink.

PLUS - Decoding populism: Groundbreaking new reasearch that begins to understand what attracts very different voters to parties like Reform, and how to win them back.

Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and special guest, former Cabinet Secretary, and chair of the Trade & Business Select Committee, Liam Byrne MP, take a deep dive.

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“This is just the latest episode in a series of the most appalling outrages perpetrated by the Netanyahu government. Trying to take out the team that you’re negotiating with is not the sign of someone who is serious about negotiating.”

“We’ve been trying the diplomacy track [with Israel] for some time. It’s failed. There has now got to be a conversation in Parliament about ramping up consequences, together with allies, to try and end this culture of impunity.”

“President Trump’s second term has moved on from the improv that characterised the first term to being a project. And if you look at the depth of Project 2025, actually he is pretty faithfully following that playbook.”

“There are still within the Commission a lot of scarred individuals, who did not have the best time negotiating Brexit with Conservative politicians and one can understand the kind of mindset that left them with. Nonetheless, Europe has to move on. We have to lock arms against one of the biggest threats to democracy we have faced.”

“This sort of incursion is almost always deliberate provocation; a testing of boundaries. It has two objectives. First, to see how quickly and strongly NATO and the EU react. Second, to make other countries bordering Russia think twice about shifting military assets to Ukraine.”

“We found a complete fusion between the populist media system and populist politics. You’ve got money coming in from all sorts of strange places into channels like GB News, from where significant sums are now going to politicians of a particular party. And that’s a model - not an accident.”

“Who is paying for thousands of flags to be put up everywhere? We just don’t know. The law around what are called ‘non-political campaigners’ is a joke - especially outside regulated election periods. The UK is extremely vulnerable. Money can come from Dubai into a think tank or media company, and be dispersed from there, completely unregulated.”

“We mapped some accounts like GB News, their network of followers, then in turn who else they follow, this intricate network, and we found that 80% of the biggest influencers are American. What organisations like GB News have done, is to lay the foundation for an American populist ecosystem.”

“Voters considering Reform are not a homogenous blob - they comprise five groups, united by concern about immigration, but with very different views of other issues. And if I had one to say to [Labour], it would be: Stop targeting your message to the most intractable members of that coalition. They’re beyond reach.”

“I hope through this research we can generate some empathy for the plight that some of the people considering Reform have been through. Because they deserve answers and a politics that works, and they deserve it now.”

“We have to start delivering change that people can see outside their front door. We used to say that politics is local - now it’s hyperlocal. It’s framed by the space between your front door, the patch of grass where you walk the dog, and the shop where you pick up milk.”

CALLS TO ACTION:

Help Smart Medical Aid for Ukraine here.

Help Medical Aid for Palestinians here.

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With Naomi Smith, Alex Andreou and Kenny Campbell.

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