The Wire - November 28, 2024

//The Wire//2300Z November 28, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: PUBLIC TRANSIT OFFLINE THROUGHOUT THE NETHERLANDS. RUSSIA/UKRAINE RHETORIC CONTINUES AS BEFORE.//

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-International Events-

Russia: Concerns are growing with regards to recent ideas/sentiments that have been floated by NATO and the United States. Specifically, Russia (to include Putin himself) has responded to the rumors of the United States potentially giving Ukraine nuclear weapons.

AC: As a reminder 100% of this rumor regarding the potential gifting of nuclear weapons to Ukraine originates from a single opinion piece by the New York Times, and has not been independently verified to any degree as being a serious consideration. Nevertheless, it’s now an idea that’s on the international stage, with Putin addressing the potential directly. As one might expect, Russia has used the strongest possible language to denounce the idea, however the fact that they felt the need to even address this in the first place is mildly concerning. Granted, almost all Russian politicians are exceptionally skilled in needling the West and latching on to an idea that puts them at an advantage, so that opportunity would have not gone to waste in any case.

Netherlands: This afternoon Dutch authorities reported multiple nationwide outages of public transportation services. Separately, various problems with cellular networks have also been reported simultaneously. No official word has been released on the cause of the systems outages, however speculation by local media has focused on the issue possibly being related to a bug within a software update for a critical data center. AC: A similar scenario also happened back in August, leading many to believe the same IT issues have once again disrupted public transit services. However, it’s too soon to tell if another software glitch is to blame, or if this is the result of malign action.

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Analyst Comments: Concerning other rumors regarding the situation in Ukraine, mutterings are mounting that suggest Putin may indeed launch another IRBM soon. This time, with the target being Kiev. Zelensky has said as much over the past few days, and has specifically requested missile defense systems capable of intercepting Russia’s missiles, even though there is no defense system on the planet capable of intercepting hypersonic warheads at this time (at least nothing that has been made public yet).

These rumors have been exacerbated by Russia releasing a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM number N1506/24 which pertained to an airspace closure. Since the airspace closure was directly over the Kapustin Yar Missile Test Site, those unfamiliar with Russia’s defense doctrine may have thought this was an indication of another missile launch. However, this particular NOTAM is quite routine, as Russia (like the United States) regularly conducts missile testing that requires such notice. This routine NOTAM has already expired, and had nothing to do with an IRBM launch.

When Russia launched their Oreshnik IRBM into Ukraine the first time, they did not declare an airspace closure, preferring instead to let the boldness of their actions convey their message. Whether or not Russia will indeed launch another IRBM (or even an ICBM next time) remains uncertain, as one might expect. 

Analyst: S2A1

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