The Wire - January 2, 2024

RR The Wire 2200Z January 02, 2024

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 220002Z JAN 24

ICOD: 210002Z JAN 24

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: NEW YEARS VBIED ATTACK STRIKES ROCHESTER, NY. IRAN INCREASES PRESENCE PATROLS IN RED SEA.

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-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Diplomatic tensions escalate as an Iranian warship transits into the Red Sea in response to the sinking of Houthi boats. AC: As Iranian forces become more actively involved in the region, the nomenclature of Iranian vessels will become confusing as Iranian Naval organization is like none other. The IRIS ALBORZ (72) is classified by Iran to be a Frigate, but in international terms is really more characteristic of a Destroyer (DD), or a Guided-Missile Destroyer (DDG), depending on the upgrades present onboard. This vessel has been in the area for weeks, but has taken a more direct patrolling profile following the escalation of combat operations in theater. It is also important to note that Iran has strategically placed several intelligence collection vessels in the region, who the U.S. has accused of providing targeting information to Yemen.

-HomeFront-

NY: An attempted VBIED attack was conducted at the Kodiak Center in Rochester on New Year’s Eve. Details are extremely sketchy, but initial reporting indicates that a man attempted to carry out a possible Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) attack on the crowd gathered in attendance of a holiday concert at the venue, timing the attack for the end of the concert so as to achieve maximum success. Allegedly, the attacker (who has been identified as Michael Avery) filled a rental vehicle with over a dozen containers of gasoline and attempted to conduct a vehicle-ramming attack at the entrance of the theater. An Uber driver (unaware of this plot) was inadvertently involved in a motor vehicle accident (MVA) with the assailant as he made his attack run, which ignited the gasoline prematurely. FBI Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTF) and Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) personnel have been observed investigating the hotel room where the attacker staged before the attack, suggesting more deliberate planning was involved in this attack. A suicide note was allegedly found at this location.

So far, even the casualty count has been difficult to determine as official statements have not been forthcoming with information. However, piecing together what information is public, two people (possibly the people in the Uber vehicle) were killed, and the assailant also reportedly died of burns at a local hospital shortly after the attack. Three people were also injured in the attack.

Analyst Comments:

Details regarding the Rochester VBIED attack are few and far between as local authorities have likely been issued orders to conceal details of the investigation as it has become a cultural standard to conceal the mere occurrence of terror attacks from the general public. As such, eyewitness reports from locals are really the only sources for information. Much like the Rainbow Bridge Incident from a few weeks ago (the official story of which still has many intelligence gaps, and is generally dubious in nature), follow-on information will likely not be made public. There are additional details that may indicate that this incident was not isolated, and may have involved other crimes in the general vicinity before the attack. However, details are again too unreliable for any concrete links to be made at this time.

However, much operational intelligence can still be gained from this incident. The attacker chose a soft target comprised of large groups of unarmed people, in a location where he knew vehicle barriers would not be emplaced.