FSU football: How do preseason analytics projections feel about Seminoles?

When the clock hit triple zeroes on Florida State’s 35-32 victory over the Oklahoma Sooners in the Cheez-It Bowl capping off their first 10-win season since 2016, high expectations for 2023 started to be formed. With announcements to return to school from Jordan Travis, Fabien Lovett, Jared Verse, and others, those expectations boiled over.

In ESPN writer Mark Schlabach’s Way-Too-Early rankings from January 9, the Noles were No. 4 behind only the Georgia Bulldogs, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Michigan Wolverines.

According to DraftKings, Florida State has the 7th best odds to win the 2023 national championship (+1800), behind Georgia (+230), Alabama (+500), Ohio State (+700), Michigan (+900), USC (+1400) and LSU (+1600).

But now some of ESPN’s more analytics-based projection systems appear to be tempering some of those expectations.

ESPN’s SP+ rankings have Florida State at No. 11 in the country and consider FSU’s ceiling to be 11-1 and floor to be 8-4, with a 19% chance of finishing 11-1 or better. Its FPI rankings have FSU at No. 14, with a 17% chance of winning the ACC, 4.4% chance at making the playoffs, 1% at making the national championship and 0.2% at winning the title.

On this week’s episode, the Seminole Wrap crew — Brian Pellerin, Jon Marchant and Max Escarpio — discuss their thoughts on those projections and where they fall on Florida State’s prospects in the fall, as well as thoughts on a new wave of transfers leaving the program.

You can catch the latest edition of the Seminole Wrap on the Everything Noles podcast channel, presented by the Fans First Sports Network network.

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