How Independents See the Republican Debate: U.S. Politics and Thoughts on the Future of America

2023-09-27

Paul Johnson analyzes the recent Republican debate from the view point of an independent voter, that featured former Vice President Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie, Ron Desantis and Nikki Haley. Paul’s observations touch upon the status quo of U.S. politics, the influence of a small minority population on partisan primaries, the importance of states like Iowa and New Hampshire, the present state of America, as well as upon conversations about abortion and foreign policy. Today’s episode is a com...

Paul’s observations touch upon the status quo of U.S. politics, the influence of a small minority population on partisan primaries, the importance of states like Iowa and New Hampshire, the present state of America, as well as upon conversations about abortion and foreign policy.

Today’s episode is a commentary on what Paul refers to as the “exceptional” recent Republican debate.
There are key commonalities among independents: they register as unaffiliated because they don’t want to be identified as a group, and they like candidates that aren’t afraid to buck their own party. Regardless of their vast differences they personify individualism.
Paul played the answer given by the candidates about whether they would support Donald Trump as U.S. President even if he was convicted of a crime. Paul spoke about why a majority of candidates had to say yes.
Paul reviewed how 44% of Americans registered as an independent, leaving about 60% split 30-30 between Democrats and Republicans. He illustrated how with less than 35% turnouts in the primary, it generally leaves about 8% of all Amercians who will vote in either primary. This gives a disproportional voice on both sides to voters who are more extreme. Candidates have no choice but to abide by this reality.
Paul illustrates in congressional and legislative races, 70% of the districts have been gerrymandered to the point that there is no competition in the general election. This means that 70% of our congress is elected by less than 8% of the American voters.
In the Presidential race it is still less than 8% of the voters who select the nominee of each party. After they have made the case to these more extreme voters in the primary, it can be hard to pivot. This leaves candidates and the parties to convince you that they are not as bad as the guy in the other party instead of creating an inspirational message of where we should go.
Paul pointed out in this debate how some of the candidates bucked this trend.
Paul discussed how from his experience working in Presidential campaigns, one of these candidates could upset the front runner Trump through winning Iowa, a caucus state or New Hampshire.
Paul reviewed why Vivek Ramaswamy originally was attractive to independents. He wrote in his book Nation of Victims, how Trump represented a victim state, but did a 180-degree reverse on his position during the Republican debate.
Sycophancy in this election is a valid strategy. If a candidate believes Trump may lose his criminal trials and was somehow not able to finish the primary, being his defender could cause his voters to shift to the defender – Paul explains why.
Vice President Mike Pence is seen as a “coward” by both the left and the right. Paul points to the role he played by maintaining the constitution and not overturning the election, and will be seen by many independents as someone who actually did something heroic.
Paul touches upon the role and approach Iowa and New Hampshire tend to have and how they will impact the upcoming presidential elections.
The foreign policy part of the Republican debate is something that really caught Paul’s attention. Paul plays several comments by candidates laying out dramatic views of America's role in the world.
Paul unpacks the post-World War II ramifications that led the U.S. to become a superpower with plenty of allies worldwide. How this leadership role we played is being challenged by China, Russia, and here at home.
Paul reviewed how different candidates approached describing problems: some using fear, others using inspiration.
Paul countered some of the candidates' dark views of America. He believes that there isn’t any better place to be today than the U.S.
He notes that despite making up less than 5% of the world’s population, the U.S. makes up over 31% of the world’s global wealth and 35% of the world’s innovation.