A Profit Recession Is Coming, An End To Inflation Is Not | Vincent Deluard

2022-06-23

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In the spring of 2020, the idea that the world would see persistent inflation was laughed at. No one is laughing now.Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, is one of the few macro analysts who foresaw this inflationary spiral to its full extent. He returns to Forward Guidance to explain how in the next leg of this inflationary saga, corporate profits will plummet as unemployment remains low and inflation fails to return to normal levels. Deluard shares several trade ideas and argues that the bear market has only just...

In the spring of 2020, the idea that the world would see persistent inflation was laughed at. No one is laughing now.

Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, is one of the few macro analysts who foresaw this inflationary spiral to its full extent. He returns to Forward Guidance to explain how in the next leg of this inflationary saga, corporate profits will plummet as unemployment remains low and inflation fails to return to normal levels. Deluard shares several trade ideas and argues that the bear market has only just begun.

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(00:00) Introduction

(04:41) Reflecting On Inflation Projections

(19:35) The Reverse Wealth Effect

(24:05) Attributing Inflation As The Cause of Asset Prices Deflating

(29:20) Looking at Economic Trends

(35:02) Bit.com Ad

(35:32) Companies Investors Should Take Caution

(40:10) Financing Equity via IPOs and Specs

(42:50) Disruptions Caused By Millennial Lifestyle Companies

(46:50) Zombie Companies

(48:45) The Big Tech Companies

(53:17) Outlook on Inflation Over the Next Year

(59:00) Yields and the Eurocurve

(1:05:40) The Financial System Driving Behaviors

(1:09:00) Inflation In Other Countries

(1:14:20) The Five Inflation Trades

(1:20:30) Japan And the BOJ

(1:24:23) Vincent's Psychological Advice for the Market

(1:30:04) The Grasshopper Analogy

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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