SI255: A Treasury Tsunami & Slow Burning Minsky Moments ft. Alan Dunne

2023-08-05

Today, I'm joined by Alan Dunne to discuss the ‘treasury tsunami’ and the current challenges that the economy faces, the state of the Japanese and Chinese economy and the fear of ‘Japanification’, what is a reasonable return expectation for the different asset classes and why you should allocate to trend following despite the scepticism surrounding it. We also discuss how we are witnessing a slow burning Minsky moment in terms of debt and the refinancing risks that will emerge in the coming years, why meaningful allocation to markets is more important than allocating to too many markets and much more.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:30 - What's been on Alan's radar in recent weeks?

03:54 - The big macro picture

12:26 - A treasury tsunami is coming

17:29 - Why has the economy stayed strong?

21:13 - A fear of Japanification

26:28 - Industry performance update

28:39 - A period of dispersion

33:36 - Calculating the return expectations

41:26 - Don't sleep on trend following

47:47 - Slow burning Minsky moments

55:22 - A conversation with Christopher Zook

01:01:18 - Charlie Munger article about diversification

01:08:34 - Thanks for listening

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