#278 Anna Wong: What If We Are In A Recession And People Haven’t Noticed Yet?

Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics, analyzes shocking jobs revisions showing only 35,000 jobs added over three months and questions whether this signals real weakness or statistical noise. Using her team's "12 million prices project," she reveals tariff pass-through is already happening with audio equipment up 11%, while services inflation may rebound as consumer sentiment improves. Drawing on White House experience during the 2019 trade war, Wong argues tariff uncertainty damages the economy more than tariffs themselves. She warns we may already be in recession and expects Fed rate cuts delayed until December.

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Links:https://x.com/AnnaEconomist

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics
1:05 Big picture economy - last Friday's payroll flipped everything upside down
2:58 Forward looking indicators suggest investment picking up in second half
4:06 Massive jobs revisions - 35,000 three-month hiring trend
6:20 Are the revisions a fluke or signal of real weakness?
9:53 Three sectors driving downward revisions - construction, leisure, logistics
11:26 Non-farm payrolls as most market-moving economic indicator
14:05 Why employment data is so error-prone - birth-death model problems
16:48 Monetary Metals ad read
18:00 How Friday's report impacts Fed September meeting prospects
20:00 Fed forecasting - 80% effort on inflation and jobs data
21:18 12 million prices project tracking tariff pass-through
25:00 Services inflation vs tariff impact - the real story
30:00 Top 20% income earners driving swing consumption
32:32 Fed outlook - rate cuts likely delayed until December
34:34 White House experience in 2019-2020 - lessons on tariffs and travel bans
40:00 Markets driven by TACO and FOMO - set for huge volatility
41:02 What keeps Anna up at night - are we already in recession?
43:23 Optimism on tariff narrative shifting and uncertainty resolution
45:00 AI concerns - people in their 20s dropping from labor force