LW - The Dark Arts by lsusr

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Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The Dark Arts, published by lsusr on December 19, 2023 on LessWrong.
It is my understanding that you won all of your public forum debates this year. That's very impressive. I thought it would be interesting to discuss some of the techniques you used.
Of course! So, just for a brief overview for those who don't know, public forum is a 2v2 debate format, usually on a policy topic. One of the more interesting ones has been the last one I went to, where the topic was "Resolved: The US Federal Government Should Substantially Increase its Military Presence in the Arctic".
Now, the techniques I'll go over here are related to this topic specifically, but they would also apply to other forms of debate, and argumentation in general really. For the sake of simplicity, I'll call it "ultra-BS".
So, most of us are familiar with 'regular' BS. The idea is the other person says something, and you just reply "you're wrong", or the equivalent of "nu-uh". Usually in lower level debates this is exactly what happens. You have no real response, and it's quite apparent, even for the judges who have no economic or political literacy to speak of.
"Ultra-BS" is the next level of the same thing, basically. You craft a clearly bullshit argument that incorporates some amount of logic. Let me use one of my contentions for the resolution above as an example. I argued that nuclear Armageddon would end the US if we allowed Russia to take control of the Arctic.
Now, I understand I sound obviously crazy already, but hear me out. Russia's Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, which have a range of roughly 1,000 miles, cannot hit the US from the Russian mainland. But they can hit us from the Arctic. I add that hypersonic missles are very, very fast. [This essentially acts as a preemptive rebuttal to my opponent's counterargument (but what about MAD?).] If we're destroyed by a first strike, there is no MAD, and giving Russia the Arctic would immediately be an existential threat.
Of course, this is ridiculous, but put yourself in my opponent's shoes for a moment. How are you meant to respond to this? You don't know what Russia's nuclear doctrine is. You've never studied or followed geopolitics. You don't have access to anything resembling a coherent model for how hypersonic missiles work or how nations respond to them. Crucially, you've also done no prep, because I just pulled this out of my ass.
You're now screwed. Not because I'm right, but because I managed to construct a coherent narrative of events you don't have the expertise to rebut. This isn't some high level, super manipulative technique. However, I think this describes most of the dark arts. It's actually quite boring if you really think about it, requiring no real effort. (In fact, it's actual intellectual conversations with genuine engagement that I find more effortful.)
Allow me another example. This resolution was "Resolved: The US federal government should forgive all student loan debt". Here, I was arguing the (logically and factually) impossible position of affirmative. Take any group of economists, and you'd likely reach the same conclusion. This is a damn terrible idea. But... my opponents aren't economists.
So I won. There were no facts in my case. My contentions were that 1. a college education helps educate voters (possibly?) preventing leaders like trump from getting elected. 2. Racial and economic divides polarize the nation and are just undesirable as a whole. Both of which are conveniently non-quantifiable and impossible to weigh. I can't say that "X number of lives" or "X amount of money" is lost if we fail to forgive debt. I stay in the abstract. Thus, my case is invincible.
An actual debater would see that there's 'no substance' to my argument. But the judge isn't a debater, so the point is moot. Now, all I have to do is rebut everythi...