The Wire - November 7, 2023

RR The Wire 2100Z November 07, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 210007Z NOV 23

ICOD: 200007Z NOV 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: US, RUSSIA WITHDRAW FROM CFE TREATY. NASHVILLE SHOOTER MANIFESTO REVEALS SECURITY RISKS.

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-International Events-

European Front: The US and Russia have both withdrawn from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). This treaty (among other things) limited the number of troops in the European Theater, in an attempt to provide a barrier to massive troop deployments that may escalate diplomatic tensions. AC: This is a serious deterioration of the diplomatic situation between the US/NATO and Russia.

Middle East Front: A tentative evacuation corridor has been opened along the width of Salah al-Din Road, linking Gaza City with southern Gaza. The IDF has been allowing limited groups of civilians south along this road during limited hours. However, both Hamas and the IDF continue to conduct strikes along this road, making the humanitarian corridor extremely unsafe. So far, it is unclear as to if any UN or ICRC vehicles have attempted to use this corridor yet, which would indicate the safety of this route. Despite this uncertainty many Palestinians try to make their way south, while many more remain in place in Gaza City.

-HomeFront-

USA: The US military continues to prepare for war. Recruiting jobs continue to be heavily pressed on service members, amid the continuance of the years-long recruiting crisis. Ad campaigns for the military have suddenly dropped DEI initiatives, focusing on the traditional demographic for recruiting efforts. 

Limited reporting also indicates the DoD has expanded eligibility for CAO programs to include junior officers, warrant officers, and senior NCOs. This is the program that notifies next of kin in the event of a mass casualty or a LSCO. AC: Expanding eligibility of this program indicates either a severe staffing shortage, or the preparation for major casualties, but likely is a combination of both factors.

TN: The Nashville shooter’s manifesto was leaked to independent journalists. Though the content of the leak is incomplete so far, and referenced a 10 minute “video tape” that has not been revealed, the motive of the shooter remains extraordinarily clear. The FBI and all LE involved with the case still maintain that the motive of the shooter is unclear. The Nashville PD is currently investigating the source of the leak and Google, Reddit, and Meta have heavily censored the documents themselves.

-Analyst Comments-

Operationally, the Nashville shooter’s manifesto is worth examination as it directly lists specific motivations for the attack, which are critical Indications and Warnings for other attacks. The shooter meticulously detailed specific items, possessions, ideology, and physical attributes of people who were selected to be targets. The shooter also directly stated hesitance to commit the attack if security was present, and included a check for security personnel in the pre-attack checklist. If LE had released this document immediately, these plans would have given critical insight into the mind and threat profile of similar killers, which may have aided victims of potential copycat attacks, and allowed security personnel to fill gaps in security plans. As is, this document was withheld from the public beyond the scope of LE investigative secrecy for political reasons. The Nashville PD and the FBI directly lied to the public and feigned ignorance of the motive for the attack, concealing security vulnerabilities and targeting information that could have been exploited (and may have been exploited) by other shooters. No LE notice or memo was released warning citizens of these attack vectors, security gaps, or target selection criteria.

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Analyst: S2A

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