Is a US recession imminent? w/ Michael Knox, Chief Economist, Morgans Financial - EP142

Michael Knox, Chief Economist of Morgans Financial, explains how he predicted high US inflation based on the magnitude of the federal deficit compared with the GDP/output gap. He  gives his view on whether a US recession is likely anytime soon, based on his analysis of some key indicators. Michael and show host Gene Tunny also discuss the economic outlook for Australia, whether global stagflation is a possibility, and the risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. 

About this episode’s guest - Michael Knox

Michael Knox is Chief Economist and Director of Strategy at Morgans. Michael was an Australian Trade Commissioner serving in Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. He joined Morgans in Sydney in 1988.

He was Chief Institutional Options Dealer until moving to Brisbane in 1990 as Economist and Strategist. Michael joined the Board of Morgan Stockbroking in 1996. He became Director of Strategy and Chief Economist in 1998. Michael remained on the Board of Morgans until 2011.

Michael has served on many Queensland Government advisory committees. He was Chairman of the Queensland Food Industry Strategy Committee in 1992, a Member of the Consultative Committee of the Ipswich Development Board in 1993, a Member of the Queensland Tourism Strategy Committee in 1994 and a Member of the Ministerial Advisory Committee on Economic Development in 1997.

From 2003 to 2012, he was Chairman of the Advisory Committee of School of Economics and Finance at the Queensland University of Technology. He has been a Governor of the American Chamber of Commerce from 1997 to 2007.

In 2008, Michael joined the Board of The City of Brisbane Investment Corporation Pty Ltd. Michael remained on the Board until 2016. Michael was the President of the Economic Society of Australia (Qld) Inc from 2009 to 2013.

Links relevant to the conversation

Robert Heller’s paper on International Reserves and Global Inflation (from p. 28)

Is the US heading for recession? | Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist

How to see a US Recession??? | Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist

How Budget Deficits Caused US Inflation: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist

Michael Knox's note: Watch the RBA copy the FED

Michael Knox's note: Is the US heading for recession

Michael Knox's note: How the budget deficits caused US inflation

Michael Knox's note: Will the commodities boom ever rest

Where you can find the indicators Michael mentions:

FRED

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

Thanks to the show’s audio engineer Josh Crotts for his assistance in producing the episode. 

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