The Wire - September 11, 2024

//The Wire//2230Z September 11, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: US SENDS ANOTHER AID PACKAGE TO UKRAINE. INDIA/CHINA BORDER DISPUTE CONTINUES. //

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-International Events-

Southern Asia: Border tensions between India and China have begun to slightly escalate again as China has increased their presence in the highly-contested Arunachal Pradesh region. Monday afternoon, a local news outlet published photos indicating the presence of a previous Chinese encampment in the region, along with local HUMINT that suggests other PLA encampments becoming more common throughout the region over the past few months. AC: Details are hard to confirm, but the reason this may increase tensions is due to the location itself. Allegedly, graffiti and PLA ration pack wrappers were found almost 40 miles across the border, deep inside the contested region. India and China have been squabbling over this region for many years, along with other border disputes that go back decades. However, if PLA troops are patrolling this deep over the border, these increasing border incursions could be yet another point for worsening relations between nations that are already very adversarial.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – This afternoon the State Department announced another aid package for Ukraine, totaling $717 million. This comes as SECSTATE Blinken states that Russia has received ballistic missiles from Iran for use in Ukraine.

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Analyst Comments: Considering the continuing trend of escalations within the Ukrainian War, the next very likely step would be for the United States to allow for even fewer restrictions on the use of American-made weapons by Ukraine. Both sides have increasingly begun slipping their gloves off slowly as the two years of stagnation have given way to increased efforts by both sides to return to a war of motion or in some way change the dynamic of how the war has gone so far. If Ukraine begins to lash out at Moscow even more deliberately than they have already, Russia will respond in kind. Likewise, as Russian gains are made on the Eastern Front, and Ukraine’s foray into Kursk remains relatively stagnant, Ukraine will without question take advantage of all of the technology the United States gives them. For both Zelensky and Putin winning at all costs is the goal. Which, considering the imbalance between the two nations, is undoubtedly resulting in more devastation for one party than the other. Escalating a war to include more civilian targets, more long-range attacks on civilian centers, more attacks on oil fields, or generally moving towards a state of Total War, is very unwise to encourage when these last-ditch efforts are not only unlikely to result in any meaningful change, but also decreasing the chances for a favorable peace deal at a later time.

Analyst: S2A1

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