TPP393: Ray Dalio: Understanding economic cycles and predicting the future

From Robert Kiyosaki to Ray Dalio No, unfortunately Ray Dalio hasn’t joined Rob & Rob on this week’s episode of The Property Podcast. That would have been epic though!  Even Rob B confessed he might not have been able to get through that interview without being starstruck and giggling the whole way through.  However, if you follow Ray Dalio on LinkedIn then you’ll have seen he’s been sharing some amazing insights via video this year. But they can be quite hard to understand and digest.  So, Rob & Rob have done the leg work for you and are about to summarise what Ray has been saying.  They’ll be talking about the US a lot, but what happens there affects the whole world. So stay tuned. Dissecting the thoughts of Ray Dalio on The Property Podcast  Economics can be an absolute minefield when you know aspects of it, but don’t completely understand it.  Thankfully it’s a topic that The Robs are incredibly passionate about and have kindly dissected Ray Dalio’s work into a more digestible version.  Here’s what The Robs are discussing on today’s podcast, thanks to Ray Dalio:  Debt cycles  The first topic is the short-term debt cycle. This is also known as ‘the business cycle’ and it repeats every eight years. This consists of: Debt-driven expansion... Over-optimism… Contraction/recession.   Because these happen so often people tend to understand them pretty well. And it’s something that Ray Dalio covers in his popular video, ‘How the Economic Machine Works’. The bigger deal is the long-term debt cycle.  Now this cycle is considered more important but it’s more poorly understood and that’s because it lasts roughly 75 years.  This is the lengthy one that you’re going to want to wrap your head around so you’ll want to grab a pen and paper for this part.  The current debt cycle Yes, it’s happening right now. So once Rob & Rob have walked you through the different stages of the long-term debt cycle, they’re going to put it into real terms.  They’re going to take a look at how it’s currently playing out, particularly in America, and what stage of the cycle we’re at.  What does it mean for us? As well as the long-term debt cycle, Ray describes how global power shifts between different countries over time.  But what does this all mean for us here in the UK?  To find that out, you’re going to have to tune into this episode to find out. You may even end up listening to it more than once! Enjoy!   This week’s news  This is where we would usually give you a link to a news article and Rob & Rob would discuss (or tear it apart) on the podcast. But this week we’re not giving you one.  That’s because this week is usually when we have our Market Update episode and The Robs delve into everything that’s been going on in the world over the past month.  They’ve decided to push that back to next week. So, to give you a teaser, you can expect to hear all about the potential of negative interest rates, and why up to 6% of homes in England could be unmortgageable right now.  It’s going to be a good one so make sure you tune in next week.   Hub Extra  If today’s episode hasn’t completely exhausted every brain cell you have, then we’ve got just the resource tool for you.  Of course, it’s Ray Dalio’s articles that we’ve discussed in today’s episode.  If you’re ready to take your economic knowledge to the next level then these will certainly get you there.   The Property Hub Magazine  As Rob B mentioned in today’s episode, if you subscribe to the magazine now you’ll be on the list in time to receive the November/December issue.  And yes, he was right, this issue is all about the lessons learnt in 2020 and let’s face it, there’s been a few!  Naturally it’ll tie in with when Rob & Rob review their predictions from the beginning of the year.  There might even be an insight as to what to expect next year. So, if you want to get ahead of the game, make sure you subscribe now!   Let’s get social We’d love to hear what you think of this week’s Property Podcast over on Facebook, Twitter or Instagram. You might even have a topic you’d like us to cover in the future - if so, pop us a message on social and we’ll see what we can do. Make sure you’ve liked and subscribed to our YouTube channel where we upload new content every week!  If that wasn’t enough, you can also join our friendly property community on the Property Hub forum. See omnystudio.com/policies/listener for privacy information.