Hot Chili (TSXV:HCH) - ’Undervalued?’ Investment Series, with Christian Easterday

Interview with Christian Easterday, Managing Director and CEO, Hot Chili Limited

Our previous interview: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/hot-chili-tsxvhch-water-business-with-1b-npv-to-fund-copper-project-6917

Recording date: 10th August 2026

Hot Chili Limited (ASX/TSXV: HCH, OTCQX: HHLKF) is advancing the Costa Fuego Copper-Gold Project on Chile's Atacama coastline, positioning itself as one of only five independent (non-major-controlled) copper developers globally with a project capable of exceeding 100,000 tonnes of annual copper-equivalent production. Managing Director and CEO Christian Easterday, who has led the company since its 2010 ASX listing, argues the market has not yet caught up with the scale of the opportunity.

The company's March 2025 Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS) outlined a 20-year mine life (14 years at primary production rates), average annual production of roughly 116,000 tonnes of copper-equivalent, a post-tax NPV of US$1.2 billion, and a post-tax IRR of 19% at a long-term copper price of US$4.30/lb. Start-up capital was estimated at US$1.27 billion.

The central near-term catalyst is La Verde, a copper-gold porphyry discovery acquired in November 2024 roughly 35km from Costa Fuego's planned processing hub. Extensive drilling (three rigs, with a fourth arriving) has defined a broad, high-grade mineralised footprint, and management expects a maiden resource estimate of approximately 500 million tonnes before the end of 2026. Folding La Verde into a restated Costa Fuego PFS is expected to lift post-tax NPV toward US$2 billion and post-tax IRR toward the mid-30s%, while shortening payback from roughly 4.5 years to 2.5 years and improving the project's position on the industry cost curve.

On valuation, Hot Chili highlights two benchmarking metrics: an EV/lb-of-reserve multiple of roughly 3.8 cents against a peer average near 11 cents (implying a 2.9x re-rating opportunity), and a price-to-net-asset-value gap of roughly 2.3x versus recent comparable copper-sector transactions.

Financing is addressed primarily through the company's Huasco Water asset — the only maritime licence with permitted seawater access in the Huasco Valley. Stage 1 (seawater supply to Costa Fuego, 500 L/s) is already funded within the existing PFS. A second maritime licence, which would unlock a larger multi-user desalination business (Stage 2: 1,300 L/s, ~US$977 million post-tax NPV) serving neighbouring major-miner projects, has been in Chile's approvals process for roughly five years and remains on track according to recent government contact, following an earlier delay tied to a change in administration. Management frames monetising this asset as a way to cover a substantial share of the project's equity requirement without heavy shareholder dilution. Additional untapped levers include uncommitted gold production (48,000-70,000 oz/year with La Verde) and roughly 40% of concentrate offtake left uncommitted outside the company's existing Glencore agreement.

Glencore holds a 7.5% equity stake and an offtake agreement for up to 60% of concentrate for the first eight years of production, on benchmark terms. The company has also strengthened its board, adding Stuart Matthews (formerly EVP at Goldfields, with five major mine builds) as Independent Non-Executive Chair.

Near-term catalysts include the maiden La Verde resource estimate (year-end target), a restated Costa Fuego PFS, EIA submission (targeted Q2 2027), progress on the second Huasco Water maritime licence, and an ongoing strategic partnering process. Final Investment Decision is targeted for 2029, with first production guided for 2031.

Learn more: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/companies/hot-chili-limited

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