Despite the US funk, the rest of the world gets on with it

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news economic optimism seems to be on the rise in many places, but not in the world's largest economy.

First in the US, not only is the federal government shut down still, but it is Veterans Day, a Federal holiday, although many firms still operate including the NYSE. But the Wall Street bond market is formally closed.

The US Senate passed a short-term compromise to end the shutdown impasse, and the lower House is now getting ready to consider the measure and they are likely to go along with it when they vote.

Meanwhile the new weekly ADP Employment report recorded a decrease in private payrolls last week, and unexpected softness. Even though this is very new weekly data, it is a key way the US labour market is being monitored now given the temporarily-closed official data agency (and doubts about its partisan leadership).

And prospects for the upcoming holiday hiring season seem to have turned gloomy. And it may not only be hiring that will be restrained; prospects for US Black Friday and Thanksgiving holiday retail sales aren't looking too bright as tariff-taxes weigh on the 'bargains'.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell marginally in October but to a level that is the lowest in six months. These firms say sales increases are harder to find.

But across the Pacific in Japan, the October Economy Watchers Survey delivered an upbeat result that was better than expected, not only about current conditions but also the outlook six months ahead.

In China, sales data for October shows their car sales rising yet again, up from the high September level to be +8.8% above year-ago levels at 3.3 mln vehicles. NEV sales were again the strongest sector. October sales start the push to the seasonally peak month in December and that will almost certainly come in at a new record month, likely somewhere near 3.8 mln units. That would mean 2025 sales will exceed 35 mln units, almost double that of the US.

In Germany, the latest ZEW survey continues the "cautiously optimistic" tone they have had for six month now.

In Australia, the Westpac consumer confidence survey was suddenly quite positive, the first positive result since early 2022 and a seven year high. It reported that Christmas spending plans will be less restrained than last year. Consumers think the domestic economy is improving while they think trade risks are subsiding. One group however reported less confidence - those in their 'mortgage belt. They see interest rate risks along with job security risks.

Meanwhile, there wasn't the same uplift in business confidence however. The NAB business sentiment survey reported little-change in October, just marginally lower than in September.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.07%, down -4 bps from yesterday at this time after the ADP payroll news.

The price of gold will start today at US$4113/oz, up +US$22 from this time yesterday.

American oil prices are +US$1.50 higher from yesterday at just on US$61/bbl, with the international Brent price at US$65/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is now at just under 56.6 USc, and up almost +30 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also +30 bps firmer at 86.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 48.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.1 and up +20 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$103,599 and down -1.5% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.

You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.