The 2025 Hurricane Models Report Card

Guest: Dr. Wallace Hogsett, Science & Operations Officer at the NHC

Every hurricane season tells a story — not just through the storms that form, but through the forecasts that guide us. And once the season ends, the real detective work begins: Which models nailed the track? Which ones struggled with intensity? And what did we learn that will help us prepare for the next big storm? Joining us today is Dr. Wallace Hogsett from the National Hurricane Center, one of the experts who turns those post-season numbers into meaningful insight. We’ll break down the verification results from the 2025 season, explore how models are improving — and where they’re not — and talk about the growing influence of AI-based forecasting tools. It’s a behind-the-scenes look at the scorecard that shapes the future of hurricane prediction, straight from the people who know the models best.

Chapters

1. 00:00 Introduction to Hurricane Forecasting
2. 01:00 Dr. Hogsett's Journey in Meteorology
3. 05:01 Understanding Verification in Hurricane Forecasting
4. 07:12 AI's Impact on Hurricane Prediction
5. 13:47 Break 1
6. 14:13 Rapid Intensification and Forecasting Tools
7. 17:41 Incorporating AI Models into Forecasting
8. 30:29 Break 2
9. 30:31 Communication and Uncertainty in Weather Forecasting
10. 39:53 Looking Ahead: The Future of Hurricane Prediction

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