Vietnam’s deal, UK tears and a deluge of jobs data

Thursday 3rd July 2025

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The S&P it a new high, helped by a post from President Trump saying he has tied up a trade deal with Vietnam. The bad news is that the deal still hits them with tariffs of between 20 and 40%, whilst accepting US goods tariff-free. And the President says a deal with Japan is looking unlikely, but that could be simple ‘Art of the Deal’ tactics. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the market reaction to the watered-down UK’s Welfare Reform Bill that could add significantly to the UK deficit and drove bond yields much higher. The US Big Beautiful Bill, meanwhile, is struggling to get through the House of Reps. All eyes are now on jobs, with non-farm payrolls tonight, along with the weekly jobless claims. Markets reacted briefly to a big downside surprise in the ADP jobs numbers, but they are notoriously unreliable.

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