The Wire - February 9, 2024

//The Wire//2230Z February 9, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: SITUATION IN GAZA DETERIORATING. FARMER PROTESTS CONTINUE.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: The situation in Gaza, having deteriorated significantly over the past few weeks, has become increasingly more serious following the increase of tensions between Israel and Egypt. These tensions come as Israeli rhetoric increasingly indicates imminent operations in areas close to the Egyptian border. This afternoon, Israeli sources have announced the commencement of operations in Rafah, ordering the evacuation of the city in advance of the invasion. Similarly in the north, large military “exercises” near the Lebanese border have also exacerbated the situation, and possibly could be an indication of a widening conflict.

Europe: Farmer protests continue as before. Including now well over two dozen nations, protests and demonstrations remain highly variable in different locations. In Spain and France, demonstrations are quite kinetic, with police largely not effective in reducing the impact of protesters actions. In Italy demonstrations continue consistently, and in Wales demonstrations remain fairly docile as protests begin to get underway.

Switzerland: A 32 year old Iranian asylum applicant armed with an ax held 15 people hostage on a train in Yverdon last night. After several hours of negotiation, the assailant was shot by police breaching the train. No hostages were injured during the ordeal.

-HomeFront-

HI: An earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 6.3 has struck the Big Island. No word yet on any additional concerns.

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Analyst Comments: Though information warfare has become staggering at this point in the war, Israeli intentions to occupy the Philadelphi corridor are quite clear. Following announcements of evacuations being ordered for the city of Rafah this afternoon, it is certain that Israel intends to occupy the city. Both of these events have been described as “red line” issues for Egypt. In the North, indications and warnings are stacking up, pointing to possible Israeli actions in Lebanon. A large buildup of forces has been observed in the north along the border, but it is unclear as to if this is a textbook military deception tactic (possible a Feint, or more likely a Display). Though opening up additional geographically-opposing fronts at a time where the vast majority of Israeli forces are bogged down in urban warfare is not generally in keeping with good military strategy, it is possible that Netanyahu may bite off more than he can chew, with the intent of forcing more direct US involvement. The other possibility is that Israel knows a war with Lebanon and/or Egypt would be utterly devastating, and as such are dangling this threat as a way of obtaining more support. Either way, this is a serious gamble.

Analyst: S2A1

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