Critical Thinking - Syria: How, Why & What Next?
The Black Spy Podcast, Season 18, Episode 0002
The Syrian conflict, which began in 2011 as part of the broader Arab Spring, has evolved into a complex and multifaceted civil war involving numerous domestic and international actors. Initially sparked by protests against President Bashar al-Assad's regime, the conflict quickly escalated into a violent struggle as the government responded with brutal crackdowns. Over the years, the war has drawn in various foreign powers, each with its own interests and agendas.
The United States has been involved in the conflict primarily through its support for rebel groups, some radical Islamists and due to its fight against the Islamic State (ISIS). Washington has provided military aid and training to these opposition forces, while also conducting airstrikes against ISIS targets. However, the U.S. has been cautious about overt direct involvement against the Assad regime, focusing instead on counterterrorism efforts.
Russia, on the other hand, has been a staunch ally of the Assad government, providing military support that has been crucial in turning the tide of the war in favour of the regime. Since 2015, Russian airstrikes and military advisors have bolstered Assad's forces, allowing them to reclaim significant territory. Russia's involvement is driven by its desire to maintain a foothold in the Middle East and to counter U.S. influence in the region.
The United Kingdom has also played primarily a covert role utilising humanitarian aid plus limited military support to opposition groups. The UK has been involved in airstrikes against ISIS and has supported diplomatic efforts to find a political solution to the conflict. However, its influence has been overshadowed by the more direct interventions of the U.S. and Russia.
Turkey's involvement is particularly significant due to its concerns over Kurdish groups in northern Syria, which it views as extensions of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party), a designated terrorist organization. Turkey has conducted military operations against both ISIS and Kurdish forces, seeking to establish a buffer zone along its border. Additionally, Turkey has supported various rebel factions, aiming to counteract both the Assad regime and Kurdish influence.
Israel's role in the conflict has been more indirect but nonetheless impactful. Israel has conducted airstrikes against Iranian positions and Hezbollah in Syria, viewing the presence of these groups as a direct threat to its national security. Israel has also provided humanitarian aid to Syrian civilians, but its primary focus remains on countering Iranian influence in the region.
So recent development of the fall of Damascus after Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, took Idlib changed matters totally adding another layer of complexity to the conflict. HTS, which evolved from the al-Nusra Front, is clearly the dominant force in the region, albeit that HTS is often at odds with other rebel factions in addition to the Assad regime. Al-Jolani has sought to rebrand HTS as a more moderate entity, attempting to gain legitimacy and support from local populations and international actors. The takeover by HTS has raised concerns among the major powers involved.
In summary, the Syrian conflict is characterized by a web of alliances and enmities among local and international actors, with the recent developments surrounding HTS and al-Jolani further complicating an already volatile situation. The interplay of U.S., Russian, UK, Turkish, and Israeli interests will still continue to shape the trajectory of this war weary country.
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