The Wire - February 12, 2024

//The Wire//1700Z February 12, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: ISRAEL BEGINS BOMBING CAMPAIGN IN RAFAH. SECDEF AUSTIN HOSPITALIZED AGAIN.//

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-International Events-

Netherlands: This morning, a Dutch court of appeals ruled against the Dutch government, halting the export of all F-35 parts to Israel. Per the court’s ruling, the court found that “It is undeniable that there is a clear risk the exported F-35 parts are used in serious violations of international humanitarian law”. The Dutch government has already filed an appeal of this ruling.

Middle East: Israel begins large-scale bombing operations in Rafah. Combat actions in the north have also increased. Israeli bombing of targets in Lebanese border regions has intensified following weeks of slowly increasing attacks into Lebanon. Hezbollah continues to conduct rocket attacks deep into Israel, as week as regular skirmishes and engagements of Israeli positions and observation posts along the border. In Gaza, the overall situation for the civilian populace is deteriorating severely.

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi targeting continues as before. Last night a commercial vessel was reportedly targeted with two cruise missiles in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. No further information on the success of this attack at this time.

United Kingdom: Following the withdrawal of the HMS DIAMOND from the OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN mission, maintenance issues continue to plague the Royal Navy as the HMS PRINCE OF WALES (R09) fails to participate in NATO exercises off the coast of Norway. The PRINCE OF WALES herself is a backup, intended to replace the HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH (R08) after she suffered propeller shaft problems and therefore was unable to participate in naval exercises. AC: At this point 100% of the Royal Navy aircraft carrier fleet is unable to deploy due to maintenance issues. These two aircraft carriers also represent two-thirds of all aircraft carriers in Europe, with France’s CHARLES DE GAULLE being the only other true aircraft carrier operational throughout the continent.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – SECDEF Lloyd Austin has transferred command to his Deputy, Kathleen Hicks following another emergency hospitalization, allegedly due to a “bladder issue”. Austin remains in a critical care unit at Walter Reed.

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Analyst Comments: Though seemingly unimportant, the Dutch ruling to ban the export of F-35 parts is the very first tentative sanction against Israel, from a European nation. The circumstances of this ruling (i.e. the undeniable civilian casualties) have resulted in one of the first official actions to admit what is going on in Gaza, that is not affiliated with any Palestinian movement or political stance. Previous efforts to counter Israel (such as the actions of the International Court of Justice, as per the lawsuit brought by South Africa) have largely been ignored by the western world, as these efforts have clearly originated from political regimes supportive of Palestine (and therefore not the most objective pursuit of justice).

As a reminder, over 1 million displaced residents of Gaza City and Khan Younis have been living in large refugee camps near the Egyptian border following Israeli mandates and evacuations ordering locals to displace to “safe zones” in Rafah. Many leaflets dropped by Israeli forces during the war have explicitly and directly ordered locals to flee to areas south of the Wadi Gaza.

Analyst: S2A1

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