LW - Environmentalism in the United States Is Unusually Partisan by Jeffrey Heninger

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Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Environmentalism in the United States Is Unusually Partisan, published by Jeffrey Heninger on May 13, 2024 on LessWrong.
This is the first in a sequence of four posts taken from my recent report: Why Did Environmentalism Become Partisan?
Introduction
In the United States, environmentalism is extremely partisan.
It might feel like this was inevitable. Caring about the environment, and supporting government action to protect the environment, might seem like they are inherently left-leaning. Partisanship has increased for many issues, so it might not be surprising that environmentalism became partisan too.
Looking at the public opinion polls more closely makes it more surprising. Environmentalism in the United States is unusually partisan, compared to other issues, compared to other countries, and compared to the United States itself at other times.
The partisanship of environmentalism was not inevitable.
Compared to Other Issues
Environmentalism is one of the, if not the, most partisan issues in the US.
The most recent data demonstrating this comes from a Gallup poll from 2023.[1] Of the 24 issues surveyed, "Protecting the Environment Has Priority Over Energy Development" was tied for the largest partisan gap with "Government Should Ensure That Everyone Has Healthcare." Of the top 5 most partisan issues, 3 were related to environmentalism. The amount this gap has widened since 2003 is also above average for these environmental issues.
Figure 1: The percentages of Republicans and Democrats who agree with each statement shown, 2003-2023. Reprinted from Gallup (2023).
Pew also has some recent relevant data.[2] They ask whether 21 particular policies "should be a top priority for the president and Congress to address this year." The largest partisan gap is for "protecting the environment" (47 p.p.), followed by "dealing with global climate change" (46 p.p.). These are ten percentage points higher than the next most partisan priority. These issues are less specific than the ones Gallup asked about, and so might not reveal as much of the underlying partisanship.
For example, most Democrats and most Republicans agree that strengthening the economy is important, but they might disagree about how this should be done.
Figure 2: The percentages of Republicans and Democrats who believe that each issue should be a top priority. Reprinted from Pew (2023).
Guber's analysis of Gallup polls from 1990, 2000, & 2010 also shows that environmentalism is unusually partisan.[3] Concern about "the quality of the environment" has a similar partisan gap as concern about "illegal immigration," and larger than concern about any other political issue. If we hone in on concern about "global warming" within overall environmental concern, the partisan gap doubles, making it a clear outlier.
Figure 3: Difference between the mean response on a four point scale for party identifiers on concern for various national problems in 2010. "I'm going to read you a list of problems facing the country. For each one, please tell me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or not at all." Reprinted from Guber (2013).
The partisanship of environmentalism cannot be explained entirely by the processes that made other issues partisan. It is more partisan than those other issues. At least this extra partisan gap wants an explanation.
Compared to Other Countries
The United States is more partisan than any other country on environmentalism, by a wide margin.
The best data comes from a Pew survey of "17 advanced economies" in 2021.[4] It found that 7 of them had no significant partisan gap, and that the US had a partisan gap that was almost twice as large as any other country.
Figure 4: Percentages of people with different ideologies who would be willing to make a lot of or som...