Why This Isn’t A Bubble & Early 2026 Looks Like Goldilocks | Warren Pies

In this episode, Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins the show to discuss why disinflation and Goldilocks conditions persist into early 2026, and where the real risks may flip from cooling to overheating. We also explore his outlook on bonds, equities, commodities, and the policy trade-offs beneath a K-shaped economy. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:46) 2025 Wins & Misses

(07:48) What Drives Rates In 2026

(13:00) Grayscale Ad

(13:37) Inflation Deep Dive

(18:47) Labor Market & Housing

(22:59) The K-Shaped Fed Cycle

(29:50) Grayscale Ad

(30:37) Fed Balance Sheet

(35:06) Active Treasury Issuance

(37:46) Equities In 2026

(45:20) Commodities Heating Up

(48:13) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

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