J Scott’s 2026 Playbook: Inflation, Rates, and Where Real Estate Wins

Jim Pfeifer and Chris Lopez sit down with investor and author J Scott to recap 2025 and map out what LPs should be watching in 2026. J shares where the year defied expectations (supply, rates, and “real” distress), how he’s positioning for a higher-for-longer rate regime, and the simple filters he’s using to decide between equity and credit today. The conversation covers underwriting discipline, liquidity planning, and why needs-based real estate and inefficient small-multifamily niches may offer the best risk-adjusted plays right now—if you partner with true specialists.

Key Takeaways

2025 reality check: distress was uneven and narrower than headlines; construction delays kept deliveries elevated longer than expected

Rates vs. cap rates: in higher-for-longer, appreciation must come from income growth and operational upside—not cap rate fantasy

Allocation: build durable cash flow with selective debt strategies while reserving dry powder for high-conviction equity dislocations

LP playbook: diversify by sponsor and strategy, avoid tax-driven decisions, and stress test for flat/negative rent growth and refi risk

Where to hunt: needs-based real estate (e.g., senior/medical/data) and imperfect small-multifamily markets where operator edge matters

Operator diligence: prioritize track record, reporting, and downside plans; verify fee alignment and who truly controls execution

Disclaimer

The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only. All host and participant opinions are their own. Investment in any asset, real estate included, involves risk, so use your best judgment and consult with qualified advisors before investing. You should only risk capital you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This podcast may contain paid advertisements or other promotional materials for real estate investment advisers, investment funds, and investment opportunities, which should not be interpreted as a recommendation, endorsement, or testimonial by PassivePockets, LLC or any of its affiliates. Viewers must conduct their own due diligence and consider their own financial situations before engaging with any advertised offerings, products, or services. PassivePockets, LLC disclaims all liability for direct, indirect, consequential, or other damages arising out of reliance on information and advertisements presented in this podcast.