The New Dilemma for Middle Powers Caught Between the U.S. and China

In this episode of the China Global South Podcast, Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden unpack a major question facing middle powers everywhere: What happens when the global security architecture you relied on for decades no longer exists?

Fresh from meetings at Australian National University and the Australasian Aid Conference, Eric shares conversations with scholars, diplomats, and policymakers in Canberra who are wrestling with a new geopolitical reality. Topics include:

Eric and Cobus also break down China's push to promote its Global Security Initiative at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, the limitations of the UN system, and why both Western and Chinese security narratives fail to address Africa's real on-the-ground security challenges.

📌 Key topics in this episode:

• The U.S.–China rivalry and why middle powers feel trapped
• Australia's dilemma: China is the biggest customer AND biggest security concern
• Why the Pacific Islands have become a frontline of strategic contestation
• Joint patrols in the South China Sea and shifting regional alliances
• Whether the Five Eyes model still works in a world where U.S. power is unpredictable
• How Japan, South Korea, and Canada are rethinking security and trade
• Why "rules-based order" no longer resonates across the Global South
• China's Global Security Initiative (GSI) and what it actually means for Africa
• Why many countries fear mass migration more than great-power conflict
• Why middle powers still lack a clear, forward-looking vision

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