Weekend Edition: Will the Republicans Sail Through the Mid-Terms?

Friday 4th July 2025

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

President Trump has fallen in approval ratings since taking office. Does that mean he’ll lose seats in the House or the Senate in the Mid-Terms next year? It’s still a way off, of course, but it would be useful to know whether the President’s policy agenda will continue at pace for a year and a half, or three and a half years.

Dr Debra Leiter is an associate professor with the Department of Political Science & Philosophy at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. She says there’s an iron law of mid-term loss, where the President’s party invariably sheds support and can lose control of the Senate or the House. But, despite his falling approval ratings, there’s a chance President Trump will buck the trend. Prof. Leiter tells Phil that you get a more accurate view of the outcome if you ask voters who they think will win, not who they will vote for. And, right now, that’s showing a clear victory for the Republicans.

Then what happens? If President Trump manages to maintain control, who follows him into the White House? Will his policies be perpetuated, or will US politics swing back to the centre, or even the far left?

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