The Wire - July 31, 2024

//The Wire//2030Z July 31, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: ISRAEL STRIKES TEHRAN AND DAMASCUS. USA RAISES TRAVEL WARNING FOR LEBANON. AIRLINES CANCEL FLIGHTS TO ISRAEL. MEAT RECALL EXPANDS IN USA.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: Overnight, Israel conducted an airstrike in Iran, targeting Ismail Haniyeh (a senior Hamas leader) in Tehran. AC: As recently as May, Haniyeh was responsible for (or heavily involved in) the overall ceasefire negotiation efforts as mediated by a joint Qatari-Egyptian mediation team.

In Syria, IRGC General Amir Ali Hajizadeh was reportedly killed in an Israeli airstrike in Damascus.

This morning, the United States increased the travel advisory for Lebanon to Level 4, Do Not Travel. Delta Airlines, United, and British Airways have announced that they will stop flights to Israel, beginning tomorrow. AC: At this time, it is unclear as to if this is a temporary cessation of flights, or if this is a more prolonged cancelation as the potential for military action in the region remains elevated.

South America: Unrest continues in Venezuela, along with substantial information warfare efforts to shape the perception of what is going on, on the ground. Mass arrests have been reported of some groups responsible for the counter-Maduro unrest throughout the country. However, some military commanders have voiced opposition to Maduro, complicating the situation. General unrest remains constant throughout most major cities, with some businesses temporarily remaining closed in the capital of Caracas. However most businesses appear to be operating as usual, albeit with even fewer products than normal. Increased potential for banditry on the remote roads linking various cities has resulted in many long-haul cargo drivers refusing to drive during this period of heightened instability. Similar concerns have been raised by public transportation drivers, with most routes not operating as usual or with drivers charging more than usual for transportation. Throughout Caracas (and other major cities) an increased police and military presence has largely tempered demonstrations in some areas, but exacerbated tensions in others.

United Kingdom: Unrest in Southport remined kinetic overnight as locals express anger towards the handling of Monday’s stabbing attack that killed three children. Additionally, large pro-immigration counter-protests have sprung up in the wake of the unrest yesterday.

-HomeFront-

USA: A large recall of potentially contaminated deli meat has spread throughout the country as Boar’s Head widens the recall. Previously, roughly 200,000 pounds of Boar’s Head products were recalled due to an outbreak of Listeria which has caused hospitalizations and least two deaths in 13 states so far. Yesterday, Boar’s Head increased the recall to include an additional 7 million pounds of meat nationwide. AC: This is one of the largest meat recalls in recent history, and highlights the vulnerabilities of food security and contamination potential.

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Analyst Comments: Traditionally, in warfare, if a nation is unable to militarily achieve their goals, they must do so politically and diplomatically. Generally speaking, killing the negotiator is counterproductive towards these ends. Israel could have struck Haniyeh at any time, as the target itself was Haniyeh’s private residence in Tehran. However, by coordinating this strike with the Beirut attack this likely was intended to serve several objectives, few of which were of direct military value. In any case, these details and concerns are likely to be overcome by developing events, as the world awaits the next escalation.

Analyst: S2A1

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