The Model that Forecasted Trump’s Victory

Harry Crane (@harrydcrane) explains how his model forecasted every state correctly in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Timestamps

0:00: Intro

1:37: Intro ends

3:38: Interview with Crane begins

3:39: When Crane began developing model

3:59: Crane's goals

4:43: Assumptions behind the model

5:12: Polls

6:35: Voter registration

6:56: Crane's Sept 1 forecast

9:21: Approval ratings

9:32: Right track/wrong track

10:58: Polling data

11:53: Crosstabs 

13:31: Early voting

18:28: Prediction markets

30:17: Political bias

35:49: Focus groups

38:39: Responding to being wrong

39:06: Allan Lichtman

40:19: Nate Silver

40:51: Crane's model's vulnerabilities

42:59: Silver and Lichtman

49:44: Academic models

49:58: Assessing Crane's model

51:04: Follow Crane

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