The Wire - February 3, 2024

//The Wire//2130Z February 3, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: INITIAL BDA OF AMERICAN STRIKES UNDERWHELMING//

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-International Events-

Europe: A stabbing attack in Paris wounded three at Gare de Lyon railway station yesterday. The assailant is reportedly a refugee from Mali.

Middle East: Initial assessment of the American strikes in Syria indicates little damage. The substantial warnings given to Iranian forces also resulted in very few casualties (around a couple dozen deaths at first count by local forces).

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi targeting of both commercial and Naval vessels continues throughout the region. Yesterday, CENTCOM officials stated that strikes were conducted against 4x targets in Yemen, and aircraft from the USS EISENHOWER CSG shot down 7x drones over the Red Sea. Today, 6x strikes were conducted in Yemen, allegedly against missiles staged to launch against shipping in the region.

-HomeFront-

NY: City officials have launched a $53 million campaign to distribute funds directly to illegal immigrants via Immediate Response Cards, i.e. prepaid credit cards. Like most other welfare programs, cards will be refilled with funds every month, but unlike pre-existing SNAP benefits, the only accountability for funding under this new process involves illegals signing documentation promising to only use the cards for food.

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Analyst Comments: Though comparing numbers of munitions (instead of tonnage and/or munition type) is not the most accurate depiction of combat power, 159 attacks on US forces throughout the Middle East have been reported since Oct 7, whereas only 125 individual munitions were dropped last night. For reference, Israel has been dropping roughly 1,000 bombs per day in Gaza. As such, the strikes observed so far appear to largely be ineffective at reducing the combat power of Iranian proxy forces in the region. Additionally, it is unclear as to if this targeting is representative of a one-shot retaliation, or if the longer-duration campaign hinted at previously will come to fruition. As it stands, retaliatory strikes may be barely above the baseline of activity for the region, and may be difficult to discern from the routine targeting efforts undertaken by combat forces.

Analyst: S2A1

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