The Wire - November 6, 2023

RR The Wire 2330Z November 06, 2023

 

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 233006Z NOV 23

ICOD: 220006Z NOV 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. DEMONSTRATIONS ON HOMEFRONT INTENSIFY.

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-International Events-

Middle East Front: Israeli invasion of Gaza continues as before. Jordan begins paradropping aid supplies in Gaza. Egypt reportedly closes Rafah border crossing, no further details on which citizens are allowed to enter Egypt, if any. Rocket attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon have increased in frequency, and have begun to strike deeper into Israel. Israel’s Arrow defense system was reportedly successful in it’s first operational test, intercepting a Yemeni ballistic missile in space for the first time. Yemen has continued to launch a variety of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles toward Israel, prompting US Navy Aegis ships in the Red Sea to intercept the launches.

The International Committee of the Red Cross/Red Crescent and the UN are working to secure a safe evacuation corridor following an Israeli strike on a medical convoy. The IDF claims Hamas fighters were in the convoy, but the UN has denied these claims and is working with the ICRC to provide escorts to prevent future targeting of medical convoys and facilities. So far, attempts at establishing a humanitarian corridor have failed as no mitigating factors (such as the Red Cross or UN paint schemes/flags) have resulted in any sort of protection from strikes.

In politics, Amichay Eliyahu the Minister of Heritage for the Jewish Power Party openly calls for the use of nuclear weapons in Gaza. PM Netayahu suspends Eliyahu based on these comments. AC: Though this rhetoric is extremely concerning, the use of nuclear weapons by Israel in Gaza is unlikely ATT, as traditional conventional weapons have so far been extremely effective in targeting Palestinians.

-HomeFront-

USA: Threats of domestic terrorism remain elevated as Pro-Palestinian protests remain kinetic. So far, large demonstrations have taken place in most US cities. On Friday night, demonstrators caused a riot at the White House. Though riots doctrinally remain low-intensity conflict, the groups that are participating in Pro-Palestine demonstrations are the groups that have demonstrated willingness to carry out more deliberate, targeted attacks. ANTIFA and BLM groups have increased hostile online rhetoric, and have used this opportunity to share tactics and host educational content that instructs members on how to carry out more traditional terror attacks.

-Analyst Comments-

As a reminder, Gaza is one of the most population dense locations on Earth. This differentiates this conflict from those in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria that many Americans have grown weary of. Gaza City, despite being only 18 square miles, has a higher population density than New York City. Israel has claimed to have dropped 6,000 bombs (of roughly 4,000 metric tons worth) within just the first five days of the war, and has been dropping thousands of tons per week since. Almost all of these airstrikes have been in heavily populated areas, leading to the UN claiming a casualty count of over 10,000.

Admin Note: The information warfare and speech targeting that we saw during the Ukrainian War does not hold a candle to that which we are seeing as humanity’s oldest and most intense conflict remains kinetic in the Middle East. With the Ukrainian War, most journalists and analysts who failed to support the official narrative were faced with ostracization and the loss of their livelihood. With this conflict, in addition to the constraints of social norms, there are also hate-speech laws that make some observations illegal. In some nations, even a mainstream news article can describe the situation on the ground in the most objective and neutral way possible, and still be considered to be illegal