The Wire - December 28, 2023

RR The Wire 2200Z December 28, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 220028Z DEC 23

ICOD: 210028Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: THREATS TO SHIPPING CONTINUE IN RED SEA. U.S. REBUILDS AIRFIELD IN PACIFIC, DRAWING IRE OF CHINA.

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-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: As maritime shipping begins to resume (to some degree) through the Bab el Mandeb Strait, interesting AIS transponder data has been noted by observers. In the metadata broadcast by a ship’s AIS transponder, short messages are being transmitted to dissuade targeting by Yemen. Over the past couple of weeks, it was common to see ships inserting the text “ARMED GUARDS ONBOARD” in the data transmitted by their transponder. Now, several ships have been noted to change this to “NO CONTACT ISRAEL” as a method of conveying that their ship has no affiliation with Israel. AC: Though how successful this will be is not known, it is interesting to note as this is yet another overt demonstration of the lack of confidence in the protection provided by naval vessels. As a reminder, Yemeni forces have ordered all ships to leave their AIS transponders on, whereas some reports indicate vessels being urged by various authorities to turn off their transponders when transiting the Red Sea to avoid targeting. This complicates efforts to identify the true number of vessels transiting the choke point. So far, many maritime shipping companies appear to be “splitting the difference” and mitigating risk by sending some ships through the Red Sea, and others around the Cape.

South Pacific: Chinese officials have urged defense forces to remain on “high alert” over the coming months, in response to U.S. strategic moves in the region. The U.S. is currently refurbishing an old WWII airbase on Tinian Island, a sparsely populated island approximately 90 NM north of Guam. The U.S. airbase on this island was abandoned in 1947, and recently efforts have been undertaken to reclaim the airfield from the jungle so as to serve as another critical staging base for aircraft in the event of a war in the South Pacific.

Analyst Comments: Reclaiming Tinian Island has historical implications as well, which are probably the reasoning behind Chinese apprehension (in addition to the obvious military reasons). Tinian Island was the base from which the 509th Composite Group was stationed, and the point of departure for the B-29 Superfortresses which dropped the atomic weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Reclaiming this airfield not only reactivates a vital base of operations, but also sends a clear message to the entire South Pacific region.

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Analyst: S2A

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