The Red Line

138 - Could Europe Defend Itself Without the US?

2026-06-22

Long treated as the immovable foundation of European security, America’s role in NATO is now being questioned more openly than at any point in decades, as Washington signals doubts about its commitment to the continent and debates whether US forces should be pulled back toward other theatres. On paper, Europe still looks formidable. Its militaries outspend Russia, field large numbers of troops, aircraft, ships, and armoured vehicles, and are already beginning a major rearmament push. Yet behind those headline numbers lies a much messier reality. Much of Europe’s ability to fight as a single coherent force still depends on the United States: its intelligence networks, satellites, airlift, logistics, targeting systems, command structures, missile defence, and nuclear deterrent. Replacing those capabilities would not simply mean buying more tanks or raising defence budgets, but rebuilding the operating system that allows NATO to function in a crisis. And with Russia’s war economy still running, its northern military districts being rebuilt, and the Baltic states sitting exposed on NATO’s front line, the question is not just whether Europe could defend itself without America, but whether it could do so quickly enough. Our panel of experts examines what the US still provides, what Europe would need to replace, and whether Moscow’s timelines may move faster than Europe’s.

- Ruben Stewart (IISS)

- Ben Barry (IISS)

- Neil Melvin (UI)

- Gen. Philip Breedlove (Fmr. Supreme Allied Commander for Europe)

Intro - 00:00

PART I - 02:47

PART II - 28:06

PART III - 41:26

PART IV - 1:05:20

Outro - 1:31:31

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