The Wire - October 14, 2023

RR The Wire 2130Z October 14, 2023

 

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 213014Z OCT 23

ICOD: 210014Z OCT 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: EGYPT BEGINS ALLOWING FOREIGN NATIONAL EVAC FROM GAZA. ISRAEL CONTINUES AIR CAMPAIGN IN GAZA.

 

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-International Events-

Middle East Front: Israel continues aerial bombing campaign of Gaza. Large scale ground operation has not yet begun, and the US has urged Israel to postpone the ground invasion as noncombatants largely have not been evacuated. Egypt begins allowing foreign nationals to exit Gaza via the Rafah border crossing.

US continues deployment preparations for the evacuation of noncombatants in Gaza, though details are minimal at this stage. In Israel, US DoS begins the evacuation of non-essential US personnel from diplomatic posts. Correction to previous Wire: CSG-2 is not yet in the Mediterranean Sea, only having departed Norfolk this morning after a delay. This battle group will likely be observed transiting Gibraltar in approximately 10 days. CSG-12 remains O/S Eastern Med.

European Front: Demonstrations continue in support of Palestine in many major European cities, despite many nations declaring public support for Palestine to be illegal under recently passed terrorism laws. Russian diplomat Nikolai Kobrinets found dead in Turkey following possible heart attack in his hotel room. NFI ATT.

-HomeFront-

USA: Lake City Ammunition plant to halt all commercial ammo sales in response to “overseas events” which will result in higher demand via military contracts. Explosion at Hornady plant in Grand Island, Nebraska kills one worker and injures several.

 

-Analyst Comments-

Information warfare continues to be a persistent threat, especially within the combat zone. Israeli officials continue to order a southern evacuation route from Gaza using the Beach Road and Salah Eddine Road, while also conducting airstrikes on these roads. Consequently, Hamas militants use these strikes to push the narrative that the IDF will strike any fleeing civilians, and staying put is the better option. As always, the truth is likely in the grey area between these two positions. Israel has been observed to target civilians, hospitals, and humanitarian activities with little regard for Civilian Casualties (CIVCAS). Many UN employees and international aid workers have been killed in these strikes. On the other hand, HAMAS has a long history of using civilian locations and structures for military purposes, further blurring the lines between civilians and militants.

Public statements by diplomats are more clear. Israeli President Isaac Herzog has outlined the Israeli position strongly indicating that Israel considers Palestine and HAMAS to be one and the same. This strongly indicates Israel’s intention to remove the entirety of Palestine from Gaza.

As the ground invasion seems imminent, we must remember the political complications of the region which inhibit accurate information reporting. There is no land on Earth more politically charged than this region, even simple road maps are highly controversial. Over the past few decades, Israeli settlements have encroached into terrain that the international community generally recognizes as Gaza. As such, Israeli tanks are both on the border of Gaza, and already inside Gaza, depending on diplomatic perspective. This creates challenges as to where combat actions are taking place, as both sides usually refer to the same location with two different names.

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Analyst: S2A

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