The Wire - January 31, 2024

//The Wire//2300Z January 31, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: PROTESTS IN EUROPE ESCALATE//

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-International Events-

Europe: Protests in France intensified yesterday afternoon as farmers succeeded in encircling Paris, stopping traffic along all major roads into the city. Preparations are underway in Belgium, Italy, and Germany to prepare for similar ongoing demonstrations that are also becoming increasingly volatile. Mass arrests have been reported at some of the more high-profile venues targeted for demonstrations, but most authorities have struggled to stop the sheer number of people protesting.

Far East: Taiwanese Defense Forces have noted an increase in PLA activity in the Taiwan Strait over the past few days. AC: This is a slight increase in the baseline trends of Chinese activity in the region. Probably not indicative of major operations, but notable as around a dozen PLA aircraft have been violating Taiwan’s ADIZ daily for weeks.

Middle East: Preparations continue for American retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets. AC: Rhetoric among diplomats and politicians leaking information to the press indicates that the response to the Tower 22 drone strike may be more of a long-term strategic campaign rather than a limited retaliatory engagement. As any theory on this possible campaign will be purely speculative, it is possible that the rhetoric that is being made public is an attempt to set expectations for future combat operations.

-HomeFront-

OK: A natural gas pipeline experienced a blowout in the vicinity of Elmwood last night. The resulting explosion was observed by locals almost 40 miles away. Authorities have not released any details regarding the cause of the blast.

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Analyst Comments: As demonstrations become more serious throughout Europe, the responses to protests will likely become more kinetic as well. In France, social tensions have become increasingly anti-government in nature. Last night, President Macron attended a royal gala hosted by the Swedish royal family as part of a state visit to Stockholm. The optics of this visit, at a time when the French are increasingly facing domestic troubles, has not been well received by demonstrators throughout the country who have drawn the links between history and this perceived “let them eat cake” moment. Similar sentiments are being expressed in Belgium, where farmer protests have been met with comparatively heavy-handed responses by authorities.

Analyst: S2A1

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