IL51: Why Most Recessions Are Completely Misunderstood ft. Tyler Goodspeed

2026-07-29

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Why do recessions happen? Tyler Goodspeed joins Kevin Coldiron to challenge some of the most deeply held beliefs in economics. Drawing on more than three centuries of data from the United States and the United Kingdom, he argues that recessions are rarely the inevitable consequence of excess or financial imbalances. Instead, they are often triggered by unexpected external shocks that are difficult to predict. The conversation explores why expansions do not simply die of old age, why recessions fail to cleanse the economy, and what policymakers and investors should focus on instead when preparing for an uncertain...

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why recessions are often caused by unexpected shocks

00:54 - Tyler Goodspeed's research into four centuries of economic history

06:05 - Why economic expansions do not die of old age

13:48 - Debunking the boom and bust theory of recessions

18:13 - Does monetary policy matter as much as we think

21:57 - Financial crises, credit growth and what the data really shows

27:11 - Why energy supply shocks have shaped economic history

30:58 - Why the UK and US have experienced different recessions

35:31 - Government intervention and whether it reduces recessions

39:09 - Do recessions actually make economies stronger

44:16 - Why the UK never returned to its pre 2008 growth trend

47:51 - Financial repression, government debt and the lessons of 2008

51:32 - Randomness, resilience and preparing for economic shocks

56:20 - Rare earths, energy security and the next potential recession trigger

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