The Jason & Scot Show - E-Commerce And Retail News
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EP315 - 2023 Turkey5 Recap with Salesforces Rob Garf
Episode 315 is a recap of Turkey5 (The five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) 2023 with Rob Garf, Vice President and General Manager, Retail at Salesforce. This is Robs' Six time on the show, having previously been on episodes 110, 248, 282, 299, and 313.
Jason and Scot discuss the "Turkey 5" with their guest Rob Garf, VP and GM for retail at Salesforce. They analyze data from various sources to provide insights into the holiday shopping season. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, e-commerce grew 7.75% in Q3, while total retail only grew 2%. Jason emphasizes the need for e-commerce to grow at least 7.7% in Q4 to stay on track. Adobe's data shows that Black Friday sales were up 7.5% and Cyber Monday sales were up 12.4% from the previous year. The speakers also discuss data from BigCommerce, MasterCard, and Salesforce, highlighting growth in online sales on Cyber Monday and Black Friday.
Rob Garf adds his observations on retail industry trends, noting an increase in demand and robust pricing. He mentions a rebound in demand in Europe, excluding the UK, and highlights retailers' focus on profitability and inventory levels. The discussion then turns to Amazon's innovative advertising approach during a Friday NFL game, where shoppable ads were displayed via QR codes. Jason believes this strategy will benefit Amazon, as it monetizes viewership and reinforces the brand.
Discounting played a significant role in driving demand during Cyber Week, with retailers offering an average of 30% off. Consumers were patient, waiting for attractive deals, while retailers managed their inventory and discounting strategies well. The luxury category, however, did not perform as strongly, with only a slight increase or even a decrease in sales. The hosts touch on the resale market and the growing popularity of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) options and mobile wallets. They discuss the potential impact of mobile wallets on shopping behavior and note that BNPL resonates with new consumers and has replaced layaway.
Finally, the hosts mention the passing of Charlie Munger and the filing of an IPO by Xi'an, encouraging listeners to support the show and announcing more holiday shopping data and reports on Salesforce.com.
0:00:46 Introduction to the Jason and Scot Show
0:05:04 Black Friday: First Sales for Vendors
0:14:06 Softness in Consumer Electronics and Toys Market
0:14:55 Black Friday and Cyber Monday Impact on Holiday Season Shape
0:16:32 Retailers' Inventory Management and Positive Growth Forecast
0:17:47 Retailers analyzing profitability and customer profitability.
0:18:29 Increase in Demand and Robust Pricing
0:22:34 Amazon's Innovative Advertising and Potential Profitability for Holiday
0:26:27 Discount rates over Cyber Week in comparison to previous years
0:29:04 Retailers' management of inventory and transparency in discounting strategy
0:31:52 Consumer behavior and the rise of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL)
0:33:32 Mobile wallets and the impact on checkout process and shopping experiences
0:35:26 Buy Now, Pay Later Growing and Replacing Layaway
0:37:22 Charlie Munger's Passing and Xi'an's IPO Announcement
Throughout this episode make liberal use of real-time data from Salesforce Shopping Insights HQ, which tracks how 1.5+ billion consumers are shaping shopping trends. You can see a real-time holiday dashboard, powered by Tableau so you can interact with the data yourself on the Salesforce Holiday Insights page.
Episode 313 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Tuesday November 28th, 2023.
http://jasonandscot.com
Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.
Transcript
Jason:
[0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot Show. This is episode 315 being recorded on Tuesday, November 28th.
I'm your host, Jason Retail Geek Goldberg, and as usual, I'm here with your co-host, Scot Wingo.
Scot:
[0:39] Hey, Jason, and welcome back, Jason and Scot Show listeners.
Vigilant listeners will remember that we promised you a delicious turkey five
[0:47] sandwich starring none other than Rob Garf, VP and GM for retail at Salesforce.
And that's what we're delivering today.
Rob was here way back on episode 313 on November 8th. And he is back here today to tell us what happened during the Turkey 5. Welcome back, Rob.
Rob:
[1:05] Thanks for having me, Jason, Scot. Always a pleasure and look forward to getting into some of this really fun data.
Scot:
[1:12] Yeah, this is your record sixth time. So your old hat here. Before we jump in, we do want to just kind of set the table, keeping with the post-Thanksgiving, theme with some leftovers.
I saw what you did there. Yeah. And we, meaning Jason and his army of interns, have gathered a bunch of data from other sources.
So we just want to give listeners that, and we know you have your own data, and we want to paint a complete picture. So, Jason, give us the quick and dirty rundown of other data that we've seen out there covering the holiday period so far.
Jason:
[1:46] Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let's do it. And side note, Rob, we're going to keep making you come back till you get it right.
Rob:
[1:50] I appreciate it. I'm here.
Jason:
[1:52] I'll do what you need. Awesome. So, super quick reminder, Q3 data from the U.S.
Department of Commerce, e-commerce for the quarter grew 7.75%, over, the previous year. year, total retail only grew 2% from the previous year.
And so if you take e-commerce out of total retail, brick and mortar in Q3 2023 only grew 1.08%, so lower than traditional. So when you come into the beginning of Q4 and holiday in particular, in my mind, e-commerce has to grow at 7.7% just to stay at par.
And brick-and-mortar has to grow more than that one percent.
[2:37] So, and I like to start with the lesser data and work our way up to the gold standard, very best data we have, which is, of course, the Rob Garth.
So our friends at adobe which have a different data set but similar methodology and slightly different definition so you can't perfectly compare apples to apples, they said black friday sales were nine point eight billion in the us which is up seven point five percent from the year before so that would basically be right at that par i was just talking about, they said cyber monday was up to twelve point four percent and that was hot off the press so i wasn't able to do the math on what growth rate that was.
They said for the whole month of November year to date, that they see November up 4.6% from last year.
So kind of below that par. These are all numbers Adobe is giving for e-commerce.
[3:26] And of particular note, and I know we'll talk about this more, they've seen a significant uptick in use of Buy Now, Pay Later services, and they've seen deeper discounting than we saw last year.
Now, Shopify is really out there with a big news cycle.
And I don't want to say they won up Salesforce, but they bought the sphere in Las Vegas and broadcast their data on the outside of the sphere, which visually is, is super cool.
But their data isn't so useful because they don't report same store sales.
They had a, you know, some unknown basket of merchants that sold a bunch of stuff last year, and they had some unknown basket of merchants that sold more stuff this year, and we don't know if the same merchants were here this year and last year or if they added a bunch of merchants or, or if this is true growth.
So, so while the Shopify numbers are interesting, if you're investing in Shopify, they don't tell us a lot about what's happening in the e-commerce world.
I did see a super interesting quote from Harley Finkelstein, who's the president of Shopify, and it's possibly, possibly that he just misworded this, but he was excited after Black Friday and he said 17.5, thousand. So $17,500.
[4:41] Vendors made their first sale this Black Friday weekend.
So I took that to mean, not that they launched on Friday just in time for Black Friday, but that this was their first Black Friday where they sold anything.
So that's 17.5 thousand new merchants.
[4:58] And then he said, in total, 55 thousand merchants set their all-time daily record on Black Friday.
[5:05] And while those two numbers sound impressive, if you kind of think about it for a second, you go, wait, the vast majority of merchants on Shopify that are B2C are going to sell their record.
Cyber Monday hasn't happened yet, so take that out of the equation, are going to set their all-time record on Black Friday.
So not surprised, you would expect the vast majority of all merchants to set their Black Friday record.
And 17.5 thousand of them are new. So what that says is there's only 37 thousand merchants that are a year old on Shopify that sold more this Friday than last year on Black Friday.
And that's, I guess, less than I would expect based on the usual reports we get from Shopify.
So that, I'll just record that as a moment and our stock analysts that cover Shopify listening on the call can weigh in on that one.
[5:58] BigCommerce, a slightly weirder data set. They saw an outlier, they saw 14% growth, but again, random, they're not trying to report at the industry, they're just reporting their clients.
And then a particularly interesting one to me is MasterCard.
I have a love-hate relationship with MasterCard.
Unlike all the rest of you, MasterCard gets a set of data for stores and retailers, so they try to forecast what happened in retail, which is super valuable.
Historically, I've seen some weird deviations from MasterCard that make me cautious about their numbers.
But this year, they reported Black Friday, they did not report Cyber Monday.
Their Black Friday number was up 8.5% year over year for eCommerce.
[6:39] Which is at the high side of the mean for all these other datasets.
And they reported that on Friday, total retail sales were up 2.5%.
But if you back eCommerce out of that number, brick and mortar was only up 1.1%.
So basically, I would call all those numbers par with our Q3 numbers.
So, that kind of sets the table.
Scot, take us through what we learned from Salesforce.
Scot:
[7:11] Yeah. So, a million questions, Rob. Let's start with, it seems like one of the biggest interesting battle royales is, A, why was Rob's face not on the sphere?
And then B, it seems like one of the data sets is saying Cyber Monday is much bigger than Black Friday. And then in your pre-show, you had said you guys are seeing Black Friday exceed Cyber Monday. So let's start there. Which was bigger?
Rob:
[7:37] Yeah. Well, first of all, I lost the coin flip and Astro or Cody, which are critters in Salesforce world, won.
So they got their faces along with Einstein on the sphere a couple of weeks ago during F1.
So I'm still going for it next year, but we'll see what happens.
But I digress. Let's get into the numbers.
So yeah, we are seeing, you called it a battle royal. I appreciate any reference to 1980s wrestling, by the way.
So thank you very much, but let's not go down that path. That could be a whole other podcast.
But what we are seeing is, as you mentioned, a battle between Cyber Monday and Black Friday for supremacy.
[8:19] And they are going back and forth. What we found in our data in 2019, Black Friday eclipsed Cyber Monday and has remained there, especially outside of the United States.
And so we're seeing big growth and, you know, partly what's contributing to that is not only Alibaba, which has been in place for some time, but Timu and Xi'an, which I know you gentlemen like to talk about.
So regardless what I think, two things based on all the data that you provide, and I appreciate the broad perspective that you share here, is people are actually buying.
They might not be buying as much as they were in the past and throughout the pandemic, but But there is demand.
And you know, I think that's important because when we look at our numbers and just to put it out there for Cyber Monday, and we can bounce around here wherever you'd like to go, is we chalked our number at 12.6.
[9:13] Billion in the United States, and that's a growth of 3%.
And I'll call it a healthy growth of 3%. And the reason being is, for the first time in five quarters, we saw growth being generated by increased consumer demand and not just merely higher prices, which is our indicator for inflation.
And just to put it in perspective, let me talk about Black Friday here, because you mentioned the battle that's happening here.
We saw 16.4 billion in online sales for Black Friday in the US, and that was up 9%. And so, as I mentioned, what this shows us is people are buying.
What it's also showing is that there's a high concentration of online sales for those two days.
And sure, you two gentlemen are laughing because that's been that way since Cyber Monday was coined in 2005, but there has been a smoothing out of demand, particularly around Cyber Week or cyber five for the last several years, but there's been a stark shift back to those two prominent days.
Jason:
[10:27] So interesting on the top line numbers, one of the, you mentioned that you're, you're seeing items increase, not just prices, right? Which kind of opens the whole specter of, of it's, we're not just seeing growth for from inflation, right?
Are there any categories that you're like going into the holiday?
It was like, hey, the growth was in essentials and food and things like that.
And discretionary items like apparel and electronics and toys were not doing well.
Did you guys see, like, are people opening their wallets on discretionary items or are sales continuing to be these kind of essentials and affordable luxuries?
Rob:
[11:06] Yeah, it's a mixed bag. And I do want to underscore your point, Jason, around.
Growth being generated by more volume and not just higher prices.
So that's exactly what we saw.
3% growth when you're seeing 9% increase in inflation is a tough equation to, be profitable and to work out in the consumer's favor.
But in this case, we are seeing more demand. And the demand, as I mentioned, is a mixed bag.
On one hand, we are seeing really nice growth in areas like makeup and health and beauty, skin care.
We're also seeing nice growth in active apparel and active footwear as well.
I categorize that actually as comfort.
In uncertain times when consumers certainly are looking to really take control of their household balance sheets, oftentimes you migrate to comfort.
You know, you can talk about comfort food, but this is just comfort gifting and comfort what you put on your body, both clothes and literally on your skin.
And so we are seeing nice growth there where actually, if you think about it over the last 12 months, those categories have been hit a bit in terms of the growth curve.
[12:20] And what you're seeing on the other side actually is luxury is softening a little bit, which which I think is important to note because for the last, I mean, gosh, through the pandemic and after, luxury was one of the most, no, not one of the most, was the most resilient categories.
And we're starting to see a bit of breaking down, especially around the aspirational luxury side. So we're going to keep an eye on that.
I will mention one other thing, actually, as it relates to categories that are doing well in the holiday and that is food and beverage and gifting, you know, in terms of.
What people look to for comfort and experiences, they are gifting chocolate, they're gifting wine, they're gifting various gift baskets.
We saw really strong growth, even starting, you know, the Tuesday before Thanksgiving and working its way through the entire holiday.
Jason:
[13:22] Interesting. One category or two categories that come up a lot, like coming into holiday, electronics had been in a pretty big swamp, like for the whole pandemic.
And I'm curious, I've seen conflicting data about whether electronics are back or whether they're still soft.
Traditionally, electronics would be one of the fastest movers for holiday.
Rob:
[13:43] Of course, of course. Yeah, I mean, consumer electronics, toys, right?
Those two are still pretty soft. I think you really though need to put it in perspective in terms of the astronomical growth we saw on those categories over the last four years.
I haven't done the math. You're really good at this, Jason.
So I'm gonna put you to task maybe on your next LinkedIn post, but I am willing to wager, and I'm not a betting person, so I'm not really willing
[14:07] to wager, but I'd love to see the CAGR of those categories over the last four years.
I'm guessing they're in really strong, like high team growth, which any retailer would be happy with that on a given holiday time period.
So there is a bit of softening, but I think it's really important to understand it in context with the growth that they've seen over the last several years.
Scot:
[14:32] Cool. Um, so, you know, with these good showings and Cyber Monday and Black Friday, what's that mean for the rest of the season?
Are you guys like doubling your forecast, tripling or, and what's that mean for the shape? We talk a lot about the shape of the holiday.
Any, any, any changes to your thoughts on those?
Rob:
[14:49] Yeah. The shape or the anatomy. I've been asked this by a lot of retail executives because they're being asked by their board, like, are you sandbagging us?
[14:59] We need to really relook at this forecast.
We crawled through the data over the last couple of days just to look through our model and see if we could see the data in different ways through different lenses.
The reality is what we're seeing is that Black Friday and Cyber Monday were taking market share from the bookends of the holiday, from earlier on and later on, right before the shipping cutoff date.
And so for the last five years or so, we have been seeing a smoothing out of demand for the seven days that we define as Cyber Week, Tuesday before Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday.
And Thanksgiving became a really strong and important day, especially on the mobile device, especially as consumers.
[15:47] Either being distracted or inspired, whichever you want to think about it, on the couch after Thanksgiving meal, looking at social.
[15:54] But we've seen a snapback of the higher concentration of Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
So it's not like there's incremental sales, and that's what I think you were getting at, right?
I don't think there's incremental sales that we can now account for.
We're still staying to our forecast of 1% growth in the US for November and December.
That's how we define holiday and in the US and we're looking at 4% growth globally, really led by Europe.
And I want to just put a caveat on this.
Not only again, are we seeing that growth come from increased demand, but retailers have gotten smarter.
[16:33] I don't know if it's smarter, but they were very deliberate going into this holiday starting six months ago about managing inventory levels and margins.
So there's been a lot of talk about how are we going to handle shipping?
How are we going to handle our return policies?
And also, how are we going to think about our open to buys?
And so I think most retail executives, especially on the merchandising side, are feeling pretty good because they're working their way through the inventory, which by the way, as you know, has been a big glut over the last couple of years, especially in 2021, when so many products were stuck in the port of LA.
I mean, that just created this bullwhip effect that we're still just getting our arms around now and getting over the hump.
And so that's my long way of saying is we're not reforecasting.
We still feel positive with that 1% and 4% growth in U.S. and global, respectively, because.
[17:24] Retailers are taking a very close look at overall profitability and this concept of customer profitability as well.
Scot:
[17:32] Yeah. You'd said, so it seems like the curve was kind of flattening out and now it's like steepening again it's like kind of coming in at the edges and in kind of like shaping up in the middle part of the bell curve which is like the that,
[17:48] cyber week. Is that that's right. Okay.
Rob:
[17:51] That's really good. Yeah. It's kind of snapped back. Right. Yeah. Definitely. Yeah.
Scot:
[17:56] It's going to make that sound.
Rob:
[17:58] Where's the sound effects in turn? Are they there? Are they on call?
Can we get that bullying?
Jason:
[18:02] I'll be adding that in post.
Scot:
[18:06] You had said something that kind of piqued my interest. You said people are kind of, you know, I may be rephrasing this wrong, but you said kind of demand is back.
Like I knew it almost felt like you were saying before there was, you know, people were shopping, but it didn't seem like, you know, a new increase in demand.
And now it is because you're seeing robustness in pricing and stuff.
Is that say a little bit more about that? I'll make sure I understand what you were saying.
Rob:
[18:32] Yeah, you got it. So yes. And I, again, and don't think retail executives are doing backflips and thinking that we're getting back to roaring double-digit, growth coming out of the holiday.
But what this is an indication, and by the way, we're seeing this as a leading indicator in Europe, let's exclude the UK, which is probably in the same rebound curve as the United States and Canada, but you take continental Europe and who are about two, maybe three quarters ahead of us in terms of the rebound, we're seeing inflation settle, the average selling prices settle down and people are buying more.
So we're seeing average orders volume higher.
We're seeing slight uptick in units per transaction, only slight.
But the order piece is super interesting. We're seeing traffic.
We're seeing continued really strong traffic.
People are just really being diligent and patient and shopping a lot and looking for the best deals. And we'll have to talk about that in terms of what discounting patterns we saw as well.
So that's my long way of saying Scot is people are buying more, they're doing it.
By still making trade-offs. So there is a sense of let's load up on some essentials while we're getting good deals.
[19:57] Let's look for travel, entertainment, like experiences.
And you have to also think of the adjacent categories like luggage, as an example, if you're going on a trip, do you need something new to put your clothes in?
And though they are, again, increasing, as I mentioned.
So as I think about the sentiment, even with a 1% in the US growth, 4% global is what we're forecasting for the full holiday, retailers are feeling good about that.
They want to exit this holiday on a really good foundation of profitability, a really good foundation on inventory levels.
And most every retailer I'm talking to has a growth mindset.
They're thinking about customer acquisition, finding new ways to do that because customer acquisition costs are still off the charts, but also loyalty, finding new ways to create stickiness, looking for adjacent categories, adjacent services, looking for partnerships to supplement what they're doing organically.
And I mean, this would take us down a whole other path, but they're leaning into data.
They're leaning into AI to better understand who those consumers are and what they're likely to buy and making sure they're able to create profitable customers.
How was that soapbox? I just rattled off too much, too fast.
Jason:
[21:13] So hopefully you were able to digest it. But you kind of, you glossed over what they're really looking at is just selling ads to brands.
Rob:
[21:18] That's fair. Thank you. I could have just said that. You're right.
That's a very good point.
And yeah, we could, I love your take actually, seriously, given that on Amazon's move for the football game on Friday.
Jason:
[21:31] Yeah. So that's a great point. And maybe just to catch up listeners that might not have followed it. Something very different and unique for this year is that the NFL, you know, normally they have a Thursday game and they have Sunday games and a Monday night game.
On Thanksgiving, they have Thursday day games during Thanksgiving.
This year, they added a Friday game for the first time. And the sponsor of that Friday game was Amazon.
It was broadcast on Amazon Prime, and Amazon actually had shoppable ads via QR codes in the broadcast, all sort of innovative, cool, new stuff.
[22:11] The early read is that the viewership was pretty good for the Friday game.
There's no history, so we have nothing to compare it to.
I would argue fewer people are going and standing in line at brick and mortar stores for door busters.
You know, the little bit of data we do have on brick and mortar shows that, like, there wasn't a huge, huge spike in in-store shopping.
I feel like Friday has become more of an online shopping day,
[22:36] which means people are home more, which means there's an opportunity to watch a football game.
I kind of don't imagine that the interactive ad formats, like, you know, we're high volume and really move the needle, but they're innovative.
And I do think that that Friday game is likely to be a new tradition as the holiday shopping season goes from an omni-channel thing to an online thing. At least that's my POV.
Rob:
[23:03] Yeah, I am super interested in your point of view given how close you are to this. So I guess I'm gonna put you on the spot.
Wow, look at me, I'm totally turning the table here, but this has been on my mind.
And actually, interestingly enough, over the weekend at a party, somebody who's not in like retail, you know, he shops.
That's the extent of it. He pointed out what Amazon did and thought it was really clever.
So what did I hear? Like, did they spend a hundred million dollars for that?
Regardless, do you think they made the money back going to your point, Jason, on selling ad space in there and kind of even if it's a break even and or they're gaining more prime members, it was a good day for Amazon?
Jason:
[23:42] Yeah, I am pretty confident it was a good day for Amazon.
Like, one thing to remember is Amazon has a better model for monetizing eyeballs than anyone else, right?
So, like, if you're Coca-Cola and you sponsor a football game, you're trying to get eyeballs and the only way you have to monetize those eyeballs is to get them to drink more Coke.
Rob:
[24:03] Right.
Jason:
[24:04] If you're Amazon, here's what you do. You get a bunch of eyeballs.
You try to sell them something that you make money on. And after you do that, you sell ads to other people for more than you paid.
And they try to sell something to that person, right? And so, you know, the combination of the ad revenue that Amazon generates and the top of funnel, and bottom of funnel benefit that Amazon gets, again, they're building their brand.
Your friend that was just talking to you, he wasn't talking about a particular product he was shopping for.
The brand he remembers is Amazon, right?
And so you got that Amazon top of the funnel benefit, which is valuable and important.
Amazon probably sold some stuff to people. So you got that Amazon bottom of funnel benefit.
And then we know Amazon sold a bunch of ads, which is, you know, a huge, huge driver of incremental profit.
So yeah, I definitely think we can call Amazon a winner there.
I think when it all settles, we're also going to see that it was just a pretty good sales day for Amazon as well.
Rob:
[25:09] Yeah, I bet you're right. Yeah. The last point and then we can move on and by the way, welcome to episode one of the Rob Garf podcast, is the fact that I mean, knowing Amazon, those ads that you're getting are personalized in terms of them understanding who you are and even if it's a different size or a different brand or a different you know, whatever, even what they know about what's in your shopping cart, what you bought in the past.
So anyways, it sounds like, as I would have suspected, you're pretty bullish about it and I am too.
Jason:
[25:37] So yeah, I do want to cover something just kind of fundamental.
So, so we rebounded a little bit and we got bigger sales on, on Friday and Monday.
Potentially we might've just pulled some sales in that were going to happen later in the month per your, your comments about not wanting to re-forecast.
Did we partly pull those in by giving deeper discounts than we usually give?
Like what, what did you see from a discounting standpoint and what does that say about potential profitability for Holiday?
Rob:
[26:03] Yeah, yeah. Yeah. So we actually looked at this going into the Holiday and we went back to 2019 and I have the team look at discount rates starting in November 1st for 2019, 2021, and 2023, what we had anticipated for this year.
And what we saw and actually came true is we saw discount rates over Cyber Week hover just north of where they were in 2019.
[26:31] Don't forget, 2021, there were the lowest discount rates that we've seen because the product just wasn't there.
So retailers, it was the first time they won the game of Discount Chicken.
The short answer is yes. Retailers did discount the heaviest they have all year, right around 30% on average.
And I think that's important. It's on average. I mean, we've all seen discounts of 40%, 50%, really creative discounting strategies.
And so that definitely drove demand. I mean, going back to the consumer, while they're buying more, they're making trade-offs and they were really diligent.
[27:09] They were really patient and they waited and they waited and they ultimately saw the attractive deals starting in earnest on Black Friday.
They weren't even that great on the Monday, Tuesday, I'm sorry, the Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thanksgiving, Thursday until Black Friday, and then they started to buy.
So they held out and they ultimately purchased those attractive deals.
In terms of margin, I think we're doing okay. And the secret here is when we looked at the data, given all the inflation that happened, And actually, consumers are still, even with these deep discounts, paying more than they were in 2019.
The optics are there. They're feeling like they're getting a good deal, but the reality is they're still spending more. So I think they'll be okay.
And there wasn't this protracted discounting that did happen.
And because they manage their inventory well, the retailers, and their discounting strategy as well, I don't think they're going to be forced with the hail Mary discounts that you often see right before the shipping cutoff date.
So I think that retailers actually managed it pretty well.
I give them credit too, by the way, what we saw in our data as well is retailers were a lot more transparent around their discounting strategy.
[28:23] Many were offering price match guarantees.
If they saw, you know, the consumer saw the price for less, and they were also much more transparent around their return policies as well.
So people felt a little more comfortable buying earlier, even if the prices weren't exactly where they wanted it.
So the long of it is, or the short of it, whichever way I look at it, is there were healthy discounts.
Consumers took advantage of them.
I'm still feeling more positive, especially than I have from last year, about margins.
Scot:
[28:57] Cool. You said something I want to dig into, and then I want to pivot to be in PL. You said luxury was a little soft. What do we make of that?
Rob:
[29:06] Yeah, and like I said, it's had a run, like I haven't seen before in any one category.
I mean, don't get me wrong. Consumer electronics really strong and some other categories in the pandemic home looked really strong as well.
But it continued after the pandemic, both in store and online.
What we saw compared again, just to put in perspective, three percent increase on Cyber Monday in the U.S., nine percent increase in Black Friday in the U.S.
[29:34] There was a tick low beyond flat for luxury. What it also showed is they started to.
[29:41] Discount more than they typically do. You think of luxury, they're going to hold their really price and be sensitive around preserving their brand and their margins.
And we were seeing that tick up as well.
I think the ultra luxury is still alive and kicking, no problem.
It's more of that aspirational luxury.
One area that I think is really important to point out is the resale market.
More and more luxury brands are playing in the luxury market game.
I'm sorry, the resale market game, because they realize people are doing it anyways, and they might as well offer that in many cases on their own website.
So like Coach as an example, Canada Goose as an example, have the capability to exchange product, which then allows existing customers to likely buy something at a higher price point.
And then if the product is in good enough shape, they're able to resell it and allow for aspirational shoppers to actually access that brand and buy it where they might not have been able to in the past.
So yeah, I'm not overly concerned about luxury.
I mean, the brands are so strong and there's so much loyalty there, but it just does show that in the aspirational space, people are trading down to a degree.
[30:55] You know, they're trading down for value in the resale market.
In many cases, they're trading down for vintage.
It's amazing to see how many, you know, sneaker brands and specific models are hot that we all remember from our high school days.
And you know, even the younger generations like to save the world a little bit as well.
Scot:
[31:14] Yeah. So I guess what I'm getting at is, do we think the consumer's rolling over and that's kind of the BNPL question too, because one way to read BNPL increasing is people are under financial stress. So they're stretching out payments.
Another way is, you know, seeing all this data and it's always sponsored by one of the BNPL providers.
So I'm never sure how to take it, but it shows that, you know, millennials and Gen Zers like, they don't like open credit.
And it's weird because my kids have this perspective too. I thought it was like, I thought it was totally made up and then they're like, oh no, I, you know, I hate having like these credit cards with big limits.
And I'm like, well, if you don't use it, it doesn't matter. It just makes them
[31:52] nervous for some reason.
And do you think it's a generational thing or is it a little sign of softness on the consumer?
And maybe the luxury is another indication that it feels like the consumer is rolling over a little bit or you don't see that.
Rob:
[32:06] Yeah, I mean, I think it is a bit generational to your point.
I don't have those data's points to substantiate what you're describing.
But a lot of what I learned is from my 17-year-old and 14-year-old because they're right in the smack dab of purchasing and trends and so forth.
Don't worry, we have a lot more data at Salesforce to back this up, billions and billions of shoppers.
But in any case, the anecdotes definitely help provide a full commentary.
But we saw an outpay later over Cyber Week increase 7%. So that's healthy.
It's a little slower than we've seen in past.
What we're also seeing, and it started last year, is it's on lower and lower price point merchandise.
So that also speaks to the adoption as well. It's not just on the big ticket items.
I think if I zoom out for a moment as well, mobile wallets were really strong.
Mobile wallets were really strong. We saw about a 50% increase year over year in that.
Now, of course, it's a smaller base than traditional credit cards and debit cards.
But still, it's showing the adoption because it's really breaking down the friction in the checkout process.
But we keep a close eye on buy now, pay later, because you're right.
It could be an indication, especially as consumers look to buy lower price merchandise, that it might be a softening in the market.
But we're not quite there in proclaiming that.
Scot:
[33:25] You said a mobile wallet. That is catnip for retail geek, so I'll get out of his way. I bet he has a million questions.
Jason:
[33:32] Yeah, no, Scot knows I love a good mobile wallet and I'm sure everyone's already heard this,
[33:37] but I have a hypothesis that some of the popular shopping behaviors we see in Asia aren't as popular here because we don't have as good a penetration of mobile wallets and that if you have mobile wallets, it makes certain experiences like shopping on social media and things like that easier because it only requires one hand instead of three hands.
So I'd be curious, do you guys think you're seeing more mobile wallet users, or do you think you're seeing more transaction from the existing users, or do you have the ability to?
To see between those two? I suspect I just asked you a question you're going to now have to go do research on.
Rob:
[34:17] Nick Neumann We may have that based on some of the primary research we do.
We don't have access to personally identifiable information, so we can't see by user.
But my thesis there is it's both. There are more people adopting mobile wallets because they see the convenience and the friction that's removed.
And then once that happens, they're buying more.
I think you go back to the Amazon example, part of why that's probably a home run for them is because it's a lot easier for somebody to buy in that form factor than let's say Roku or other Verizon user interfaces that you don't have a wallet associated with it.
I didn't go through the shopping process on the Friday NFL game, but I can only imagine it was much easier than having to do it through other types of media.
So I think that, yeah, I agree by the way, with your hypothesis that, you know, embedded commerce or shopping at the edge has been a bit stunted because, the wallet piece is not there or as accessible as it is in other countries.
Jason:
[35:30] Yeah. Two things I'll just throw out there on buy now, pay later.
I mean, I do, I think it, it legitimately resonates with the new crop of consumers.
And so I think it's growing for all the reasons that the Buy Now Pay Later people claim it's growing.
But I would, there's two accelerators that are just kind of convenient in there.
Holiday used to be a big time for this payment method that the youngsters on the call wouldn't have heard of called the layaway.
And almost no retailer that I'm aware of has brought back layaway, like they all retired it in the last several years, largely because Buy Now Pay Later has replaced it. And so, you know, layaway is most popular around holiday.
So, you know, to the extent that buy now pay later is the digital version of layaway.
It kind of makes sense that you would see a spike over a holiday.
Also, digital is growing much faster than brick and mortar. Buy Now, Pay Later is disproportionately online.
So that, you know, is another reason you would expect Buy Now, Pay Later to spike.
One thing that's a little alarming slash interesting to me is that Buy Now, Pay Later gets used for a wider range of purchases and merchandise than LayAway did.
Like, LayAway tended to be big ticket items, your kid's aspirational toys, but Buy Now Pay Later gets used for food and consumables and things that economically you would argue probably don't want to be financing something that you need to rebuy every month.
Rob:
[36:52] Yes.
Jason:
[36:53] So I'll just throw that out there on Buy Now Pay Later. We are coming up on our allotted time.
I do have two other pieces of news that just kind of interrupted the Turkey Five news cycle.
And one of them I'm super sad about, and it's actual breaking news that happened while we were recording this show, Charlie Munger just passed away at 99.
Rob:
[37:13] Oh, wow.
Scot:
[37:14] That's terrible.
Jason:
[37:15] Warren Buffett's partner, and I just, I feel like, very admirable person.
I've learned a lot. He and Warren Buffett, like, are super generous with sharing
[37:23] all this thought leadership, and I just want to say best wishes to all his family and loved ones. Seems like you had an amazing life.
Rob:
[37:31] Yeah, I echo your sentiment.
Jason:
[37:33] Yep. And then in the middle of Cyber 5, you guys teased this a couple of times talking about Xi'an. and Xi'an disclosed that they filed an IPO.
So that came out yesterday. It's a confidential IPO, so we won't actually see the prospectus until probably 2024 sometime.
Okay. And the theory is that it's going to be, because of their not super transparent ownership structure and their Chinese ownership, it's gonna have extra regulatory scrutiny.
And so the reason you'd file a confidential IPO is so you could start talking to regulators and negotiating what you're gonna do and what you're gonna disclose.
And so they're probably working through all that stuff to then do the public IPO later.
But it's, I'm excited for when that gets disclosed because there's a lot of speculation about how big Shein is and how profitable or unprofitable their model has been.
And we're gonna be able to do away with all that speculation and get some real certified data.
Rob:
[38:38] I can't wait to listen to that show when you dissect that. It will be super interesting to see where they're allocating the investment and the capital.
Beyond, obviously, hiring people, but what parts of the business.
Jason:
[38:51] I totally agree and th
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EP201 - Cyber5 2019 Hot Take
EP200 - Walmart Chief Customer Officer Janey Whiteside
EP199 - Dreamforce and Retail Earnings
EP198 - Holiday Forecasts
EP197 - Personalization Deep Dive
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