Will the current bearish mood in crude oil markets last?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Demand angst – US banking turmoil, debt ceiling risks, recessionary fears and financial scarring through low liquidity – has dominated crude oil markets for much for 2023 so far. Our central narrative in our 2023 energy markets outlook was premised on a large H2 2023 deficit (see here), with international energy agencies and market consensus increasingly singing from the same hymn sheet. With this, attention is turning to whether the near 15% selloff crude oil year-to-date is about to reverse given the looming tightness ahead.

Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA), contextualises the current state of affairs in global oil markets, and offers his perspective as to why accelerated growth in EM demand, deep OPEC+ production cuts and lethargic US supply are expected to drive oil prices constructively higher by the summer.

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