The Investment Implications of the Housing Slump

For many people, I suspect, 2022 will be a year to forget.  However, for millions of home-builders, home-sellers and home-buyers, it will be remembered for the speed with which a housing boom turned into a housing bust.  The reason, of course, has been a surge in mortgage rates.  These rates look likely to stay high, at least over the next year, contributing to sharp declines in housing starts and home sales and a negative impact on GDP.  Eventually, this could motivate the Federal Reserve to reverse course and cut rates.  However, mortgage rates are unlikely to fall to anything like the levels they maintained for the 14 years prior to 2022, while limited housing supply will probably prevent a collapse in prices.  Given this, it appears we are now entering an era when the decision to buy a house should be focused more on the finding the right home in which to live than the right asset in which to invest.