Phillip Orchard on Geopolitical Futures, US-China Competition, Forecasting Methods (GGWP 15)

How do the biggest geopolitical risk firms approach forecasting? What’s the future of tensions between the United States and China? How hard is it to forecast far into the future? In this episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we sat down with Phillip Orchard of Geopolitical Futures to talk about all of these topics and more.

For those who aren’t aware, Geopolitical Futures is a geopolitical forecasting operation founded by George Friedman, former Stratfor Chairman and author of The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. Within the organization Phillip focuses on the Indo-Pacific, working to inform clients about risks stemming from that region of the world. Phillip is an expert in Chinese foreign policy and has developed a deep understanding of the geopolitics dynamics at play in the greater East Asian and Southeast Asian regions of the world. He even speaks some Thai!

Watch until the end to hear a new rapid fire question we gave Phillip given his areas of interest/expertise. And although this isn’t The Right Side of Maybe, we did ask Phillip about some specific forecasts he’s completed that we felt were notable, so enjoy our discussion of some forecast post-mortems. You can find Phillip on Twitter: @PhillipOrchard.

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