Plan B’s Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow Model Will Die in 2026

2025-08-11

Watch Video on YouTube Five years ago, I predicted Plan B's Bitcoin stock-to-flow model (S2F) would fail in this decade because it had 8 flaws. During Bitcoin's spectacular 2022 crash, many analysts declared the S2F models dead. I surprised everyone when I (one of Plan B's most prominent critics) said, "It's not dead yet." The reason Plan B's stock-to-flow Bitcoin models are not dead is not because they're correct, but because they have a wide range of acceptable values that will allow them to survive until the next...

Watch Video on YouTube

Five years ago, I predicted Plan B's Bitcoin stock-to-flow model (S2F) would fail in this decade because it had 8 flaws.

During Bitcoin's spectacular 2022 crash, many analysts declared the S2F models dead.

I surprised everyone when I (one of Plan B's most prominent critics) said, "It's not dead yet."

The reason Plan B's stock-to-flow Bitcoin models are not dead is not because they're correct, but because they have a wide range of acceptable values that will allow them to survive until the next halving.

In 2025, the S2F average price has risen to a staggering $500,000, while Bitcoin (BTC) hovers around $120,000 as of August 11, 2025, when I released this video.

Therefore, even though BTC has increased by over $100,000 from its $15,000 price in November 2022, and should be a cause for massive celebration for BTC fans, Plan B is lamenting the relatively low price appreciation of this "strange, flat bull market."

In my annual S2F update, I'll examine how the S2F model is doing and explain why it will begin its slow and painful death at the end of this year.

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