Predictions for 2021

2021-01-03

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Watch it on YouTube! Everyone loves to say, "I told you so." But few are willing to admit, "I told you something wrong." Even though every human makes mistakes every day, it's surprisingly hard to find humans who regularly say, "I was wrong." I make annual predictions not to say "I told you so," but rather to teach myself some humility. I predict events so I can publicly humiliate myself. It's my way of telling the world, "Look at how spectacularly wrong I was. I am an idiot." I recommend...

Watch it on YouTube!

Everyone loves to say, "I told you so."

But few are willing to admit, "I told you something wrong."

Even though every human makes mistakes every day, it's surprisingly hard to find humans who regularly say, "I was wrong."

I make annual predictions not to say "I told you so," but rather to teach myself some humility.

I predict events so I can publicly humiliate myself.

It's my way of telling the world, "Look at how spectacularly wrong I was. I am an idiot."

I recommend everyone should write down annual predictions for this reason.

It's a way to keep your ego in check.

Of course, you'll probably get a few things right, but the point is that you get to say those magic words: "I was wrong."

See how I did on my 2020 predictions.

Here are the predictions for 2021

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJvDAOZGp8o

1. Bitcoin ends the year at $40,000.

I was recommending BTC at $3,500 in December 2018, and it's gone up tenfold since then!

My first two BTC predictions were surprisingly accurate. My 2020 prediction was far vaguer than the previous predictions. That reflected that I was less certain than before.

I feel the same way now.

Like most analysts, I expect 2021 to be a huge year for bitcoin.

Most Bitcoin fans are expecting that 2021 will be a monumental year:

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, predicts bitcoin will hit $50,000 in 2021.
The dubious stock-to-flow model predicts that BTC will be $55,000 by the end of 2021.
A Morgan Creek co-founder says bitcoin will hit $100,000 in 2021. (That's my 2030 prediction!)
Willy Woo (an analyst that I usually respect) says BTC will end 2021 between $200-300k.

You get the idea.

On the one hand, such bullishness could make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. Bitcoin (like all money and gold) is all about human belief. Money is an imaginary thing. If we collectively decide it's worth $100,000 per BTC, then that's what it will be worth.

On the other hand, bitcoin has an uncanny ability to surprise most people. When pundits pronounce that bitcoin is dead (which they've done countless times), it comes roaring back.

Similarly, whenever bitcoin is soaring, people extrapolate the trajectory and get overly exuberant. The same thing happens with the stock market. During a bull market, they predict that the doublings will continue.

So far, bitcoin hasn't surprised me, but I'm sure I'll get it wrong at some point.

I'm predicting $40,000 because it's much less than the most bullish predictions, but it's still a positive year and a gain of nearly $10,000.

Remember: $40,000 is what I predict the price will be on December 31, 2021. I fully expect it to reach much higher than that during the year. For example, it might go to $60,000 and then lose half of its value (down to $30k) and then bounce back up to $40k.

The safest bitcoin prediction is that it will have a volatile year. So I wouldn't be surprised if, during 2021, it trades between $20,000 and $100,000!

I'm sticking with my prediction that bitcoin (BTC) will hit $100,000 by the end of this decade. That implies that it gains about $10,000 per year, on average.

I truly hope that the bitcoin fans are right with their frothy predictions, but I'm more conservative.

Indeed, I would not be completely surprised if Bitcoin ends BELOW $30,000 at the end of 2021. It's a wild beast.

2. Another 500,000 deaths worldwide from the Coronavirus.

On March 27, 2020, I predicted 1.5 million people would die worldwide from the virus in 2020. Reality: 1.8 million died of COVID-19 in 2020. When I made the prediction, only 60,000 had died at that point.

Although we've got several vaccines, I suspect many will lower their guard in the first quarter of 2021. Resistance to taking a vaccine will slow down our ability to achieve herd immunity (70%+ vaccinated or infected).

Since some vaccines require two doses spaced a few weeks apart, many people won't take the second dose, thereby exposing them to the virus when they let their mask down.

Also, while high-income countries may distribute the vaccine widely before June 2021, low-income countries will need most of the year to do it.

All these factors will make it so that 2021 will still be a deadly year for the Coronavirus, but the news won't make a big deal about it just like they don't make a big deal about the 400,000 annual worldwide deaths from the flu.

3. Worldwide flu deaths will be 200,000

That's half the normal rate, thanks to all precautions we are taking against the Coronavirus.

4. S&P 500 goes up 20%

There will be a huge rally in the first half of 2021 as the COVID vaccine allows life to return to normal. However, exuberance will fade in September and October of 2021 so that the market will strip much of its gains. Still, it will be a great year overall for stocks.

5. Jimmy Carter dies

He'll be 98 years old when he dies, which would make him the oldest former US president (George H. Bush was 94 when he died).

6. Police Kill A Similar Number of People

Despite the George Floyd protests and the Black Lives Movement, the US police will kill:

1,000 people (97% will be armed and dangerous)
30 unarmed Blacks
35+ unarmed Whites

Why these numbers?

Because they're better than what they were during the Obama administration. Yes, cops killed fewer unarmed Blacks under Trump than Obama. I'm not crediting Trump. The US President has little influence over local police matters.

When I asked, "What's a Reasonable Level of Police Killings?", I came up with those numbers above.

We've been improving and I hope we continue to lower them slowly.

But it will never be zero.