Special Episode: Where Can Illinois Republicans Win in 2026?—Smoke-Filled Room—Episode 113

People have been asking for this episode for months, and we’ve finally delivered it. We’re revealing how candidates performed in 2024 and where Republicans can win in Illinois in 2026, all based on data.

In this special episode of Smoke-Filled Room, Collin Corbett, Michael Butler, and Chris Jackowiak unveil data and give analysis you won’t get anywhere else, with a little help from Abbey Corbett.

In part 1, we look at the candidates who overperformed and underperformed throughout Illinois. How did you or your favorite candidate perform? Based on the data, we hand out letter grades…with many that are sure to surprise.

In part 2, we analyze the turnout data from 2024, now that it is fully available statewide. The data challenges assumptions many have just accepted as fact at this point, while revealing several other interesting trends that should shape Republicans’ strategy in 2026.

In part 3, we take all the data to identify which districts and counties Republicans should, and shouldn’t, invest in this election cycle. Is your district or county a start, bench, or cut pick? This caused multiple, and we mean multiple, heated debates among the group as we went through every battleground in the state.

00:00: Introduction to This Special Episode
03:29: Part 1: 2024 IL Candidate Performance
04:46: 2024 Congressional Candidate Performance
20:46: 2024 State Senate Candidate Performance
27:55: 2024 State House Candidate Performance
01:00:15: Part 2: 2024 IL Turnout Analysis
01:00:55: Overall Turnout Was Down
01:03:34: Yet Again, Republican Turnout Went Up
01:09:33: Democratic Turnout Up in the Suburbs but Down Overall
01:14:53: Suburban Turnout Up Overall
01:16:07: Older Voter Turnout Increased While Younger Voter Turnout Decreased
01:20:51: Minority Turnout Down Again
01:26:42: Part 3: 2026 IL District Opportunities
01:28:59: 2026 Congressional Opportunities
01:38:15: 2026 State Senate Opportunities
01:55:11: 2026 State House Opportunities
02:33:01: 2026 County Opportunities